Costco (COST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-10-30
$1012.28+1.63%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put COST beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Staples is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain strong cash flow from operations: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 94% growth a year, above the roughly 11% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationRelatively steady — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskCostco's case rests on steady revenue growth backed by strong cash generation. Revenue growth eased to 11.2% in fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 from 11.6%. That quarter's earnings beat estimates by 4.2%. Costco trades at 48× earnings versus peers' 16× median. The market prices in more growth than our forecast. The peer gap leaves the premium needing continued support. The model puts next-quarter earnings miss risk near 15%. The cash-flow pillar needs review because its comparison is unverified. Peer multiples imply a price about 92% below where it trades. The thesis is on watch.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. COST is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 41 analysts currently covering COST (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 8 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for COST in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare COST with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Consumer Staples (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put COST next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase quarterly dividend
The declared $1.47 quarterly dividend confirms the ongoing shareholder-return objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $1012.28
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $1012.28.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Achieve consistent revenue and comparable sales growth
New warehouse supports revenue and sales growth objectives.
Increased competition may impact sales growth.
Advances: Achieve consistent revenue and comparable sales growth
Strong sales performance supports growth objectives.
Advances: Achieve consistent revenue and comparable sales growth
Company-prepared sales remarks provide official evidence relevant to revenue and comparable-sales growth.
Advances: Achieve consistent revenue and comparable sales growth
September net sales of $30.02 billion provide concrete evidence of revenue growth.
Advances: Achieve consistent revenue and comparable sales growth
Enhances customer value, potentially boosting sales growth.
Advances: Achieve consistent revenue and comparable sales growth
Positive membership metric indicates revenue growth potential.
