Procter & Gamble (PG)

NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$159.35+1.45%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Procter & Gamble’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.39 → 7.39 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain EPS growth between 1% and 6% in fiscal 2026	It aims for EPS growth of 1% to 6% in fiscal 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS growth falls below 1% in FY26	Diluted EPS growth: -14.86% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 1% to 6% EPS growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-14.864865 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow yield near 0.85% to 0.9% in fiscal 2026	The company maintains strong free cash flow near 0.85% to 0.9%.	Intact	FCF yield falls below 0.85% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage inflation and consumer demand pressures effectively	A supporting condition in Procter & Gamble's published investment case. The stated target is Inflation impact contained without major demand drop.	Improving	Significant inflation-driven demand decline or cost pressure hurting growth	organic sales +1-3% vs target of contained inflation impact FY27 guidance of 1-3% organic growth supports demand stability, but new cost problems and supplier inflation threats remain. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain sales growth between 1% and 5% in fiscal 2026	Procter & Gamble grows sales between 1% and 5% yearly.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 1% in FY26	Revenue growth: 1.5% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 1% to 5% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20261.503183 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$7.39

$7.45 → $7.39 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$91.33B

$92.40B → $91.33B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.45	$92,397,353,675	8 / 17
2026-07-25	$7.45	$92,397,353,675	8 / 17
2026-07-26	$7.43	$92,397,353,675	8 / 17
2026-07-27	$7.43	$92,397,353,675	8 / 17
2026-07-28	$7.43	$92,397,353,675	8 / 17
2026-07-29	$7.43	$92,397,353,675	8 / 17
2026-07-30	$7.42	$91,892,222,430	11 / 17
2026-07-31	$7.41	$91,679,452,930	19 / 21
2026-08-01	$7.40	$91,647,494,180	11 / 16
2026-08-02	$7.41	$91,448,977,790	22 / 22
2026-08-03	$7.40	$91,212,017,990	12 / 17
2026-08-04	$7.40	$91,212,017,990	12 / 17
2026-08-05	$7.40	$91,212,017,990	12 / 17
2026-08-06	$7.40	$91,212,017,990	12 / 17
2026-08-07	$7.40	$91,248,303,704	13 / 17
2026-08-08	$7.41	$91,483,655,250	22 / 22
2026-08-09	$7.40	$91,248,303,704	13 / 17
2026-08-10	$7.40	$91,248,303,704	13 / 17
2026-08-12	$7.40	$91,480,564,340	23 / 22
2026-08-13	$7.40	$91,248,303,704	13 / 17
2026-08-14	$7.40	$91,248,303,704	13 / 17
2026-08-15	$7.40	$91,248,303,704	13 / 17
2026-08-16	$7.40	$91,248,303,704	13 / 17
2026-08-17	$7.40	$91,248,303,704	13 / 17
2026-08-18	$7.40	$91,248,303,704	13 / 17
2026-08-19	$7.40	$91,248,303,704	13 / 17
2026-08-20	$7.39	$91,242,739,929	14 / 18
2026-08-21	$7.39	$91,242,739,929	14 / 18
2026-08-22	$7.39	$91,242,739,929	14 / 18
2026-08-23	$7.39	$91,242,739,929	14 / 18
2026-08-24	$7.39	$91,242,739,929	14 / 18
2026-08-25	$7.39	$91,242,726,657	14 / 18
2026-08-26	$7.39	$91,242,726,657	14 / 18
2026-08-27	$7.39	$91,242,726,657	14 / 18
2026-08-28	$7.39	$91,242,726,657	14 / 18
2026-08-29	$7.39	$91,242,726,657	14 / 18
2026-08-30	$7.39	$91,242,726,657	14 / 18
2026-08-31	$7.39	$91,242,726,657	14 / 18
2026-09-01	$7.39	$91,242,726,657	14 / 18
2026-09-02	$7.39	$91,242,739,929	14 / 18
2026-09-03	$7.39	$91,242,739,929	14 / 18
2026-09-04	$7.39	$91,242,739,929	14 / 18
2026-09-05	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-06	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-07	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-08	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-09	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-10	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-11	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-12	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-13	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-14	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-15	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-16	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-17	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-18	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-19	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-20	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-21	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-22	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-23	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-24	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-25	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-26	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-27	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-28	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-29	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-09-30	$7.39	$91,239,025,643	14 / 18
2026-10-01	$7.39	$91,249,835,167	14 / 18
2026-10-02	$7.39	$91,282,997,071	14 / 18
2026-10-03	$7.39	$91,282,997,071	14 / 18
2026-10-04	$7.39	$91,282,997,071	14 / 18
2026-10-05	$7.39	$91,282,997,071	14 / 18
2026-10-06	$7.39	$91,323,306,010	14 / 18
2026-10-07	$7.39	$91,326,235,976	15 / 18
2026-10-08	$7.39	$91,320,045,500	15 / 18
2026-10-09	$7.39	$91,320,045,500	15 / 18
2026-10-10	$7.39	$91,320,045,500	15 / 18
2026-10-11	$7.39	$91,328,354,614	15 / 18
2026-10-12	$7.39	$91,328,354,614	15 / 18
2026-10-13	$7.39	$91,328,354,614	15 / 18
2026-10-14	$7.39	$91,328,354,614	15 / 18
2026-10-15	$7.39	$91,328,354,614	15 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	10
2026-06-01	14	11
2026-07-01	15	11
2026-08-01	14	12
2026-09-01	13	12
2026-10-01	14	12

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 6 · prior Apr 9

$167.00 → $166.00-0.6%

Evercore ISIOct 6 · prior Apr 27

$162.00 → $166.00+2.5%

$0$91.85$183.70

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain EPS growth between 1% and 6% in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow yield near 0.85% to 0.9% in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain sales growth between 1% and 5% in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Procter & Gamble outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial performance that remains strong compared to industry peers.

What's priced into Procter & Gamble

The market currently prices in a durable premium for Procter & Gamble, reflecting expectations of consistent performance. However, there is a notable expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for potential challenges ahead.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management aims for organic sales growth of 1-3% and diluted net earnings per share growth of 1-5% in fiscal 2027. While recent results have shown mixed performance in free cash flow productivity, the overall trajectory suggests modest growth is achievable despite some headwinds.

What Procter & Gamble hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to deliver on growth targets and navigate potential economic challenges. Key factors include guidance updates, inflation trends, and broader economic conditions that could impact consumer spending.