Boston Beer Company (SAM)

Q: What's priced into Boston Beer Company (SAM) stock?

SAM trades at a 1.68 premium to peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not clearly ahead of the evidence. The valuation signal is tagged justified, and fragility is low, but loss-making results limit what valuation evidence can establish.

Q: What does the Boston Beer Company (SAM) outlook hinge on?

The thesis depends on whether SAM can sustain margin improvements while restoring sales, depletions, and market-share trends. A guidance reversal after the recent increase would further damage credibility; weaker employment could add pressure, while stronger results from sector peers would provide a more supportive backdrop.

NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-10-23

$202.28+3.35%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Boston Beer Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.25 → 10.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-26
Revenue	—	392.29M
EPS	—	-0.422
Annual ending 2026-12-27
Revenue	—	1.91B
EPS	—	9.307
Annual ending 2027-12-27
Revenue	—	1.91B
EPS	—	10.392

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Repurchase up to $25M of Class A Common Stock in mid-2026	It plans to repurchase up to $25 million of Class A stock, showing capital discipline.	Intact	Repurchase plan is cancelled or materially reduced	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 supplied quarters. The company repurchased $79.5 million in shares through October 16, 2026, with approximately $149 million remaining under the $1.6 billion board limit. The stated capital-allocation activity is being carried out, with the latest disclosure providing a specific dollar milestone. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Cash from operating activities improves from -$20.4M in Q1 2026	A primary condition in Boston Beer Company's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operations positive by FY26.	Under Pressure	Cash from operations remains negative through FY26	Cash from operations: $138.01M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations positive by FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 2026138,010,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 48-50% in FY26	The company targets gross margins near 48-50% in FY26.	Under Pressure	Gross margin falls below 48% in FY26	Gross margin: 51.74% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Gross margin >=48% and <=50% in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 22, 202651.735721 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d0b96eac-ca68-4c28-b7fe-904948de96d6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves from -$190.5M in Q1 2026	Boston Beer aims to improve operating income from a loss of $190.5M in Q1 2026.	Broken	Operating income remains negative or worsens through FY26	Operating income: $56.329M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves to at least break-even by FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 22, 202656,329,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d0b96eac-ca68-4c28-b7fe-904948de96d6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.39

$10.75 → $10.39 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.91B

$1.96B → $1.91B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.75	$1,959,602,514	7 / 9
2026-07-25	$10.75	$1,959,602,514	7 / 9
2026-07-26	$10.35	$1,923,943,986	7 / 9
2026-07-27	$10.35	$1,923,943,986	7 / 9
2026-07-28	$10.35	$1,923,943,986	7 / 9
2026-07-29	$10.35	$1,923,943,986	7 / 9
2026-07-30	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-07-31	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-01	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-03	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-04	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-05	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-06	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-09	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-10	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-11	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-12	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$10.24	$1,919,024,995	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$10.13	$1,917,115,904	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$10.13	$1,917,115,904	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$10.13	$1,917,115,904	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$10.13	$1,917,115,904	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$10.13	$1,917,115,904	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$10.13	$1,917,115,904	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$10.13	$1,917,115,904	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$10.12	$1,916,593,596	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$10.12	$1,916,593,596	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$10.12	$1,916,593,596	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$10.12	$1,914,767,163	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$10.12	$1,914,767,163	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$10.12	$1,914,767,163	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$10.12	$1,914,767,163	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$10.10	$1,914,558,313	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$10.05	$1,913,916,646	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$10.39	$1,911,099,590	7 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	12	2
2026-06-01	1	11	2
2026-07-01	1	11	2
2026-08-01	1	11	2
2026-09-01	1	11	1
2026-10-01	1	11	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 23 · prior Jul 16

$190.00 → $204.00+7.4%

JefferiesOct 23 · prior Jul 24

$195.00 → $200.00+2.6%

RBC CapitalOct 6 · prior Jul 24

$210.00 → $190.00-9.5%

$0$115.50$231.00

2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Repurchase up to $25M of Class A Common Stock in mid-2026Qualitative condition
Cash from operating activities improves from -$20.4M in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Gross margin near 48-50% in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Operating income improves from -$190.5M in Q1 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Boston Beer Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a turnaround-like operating thesis, not a proven durable compounder: SAM is loss-making, and management execution is rated volatile. The thesis is in a watch state after recent results weakened the company’s momentum.

What's priced into Boston Beer Company

SAM trades at a 1.68 premium to peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not clearly ahead of the evidence. The valuation signal is tagged justified, and fragility is low, but loss-making results limit what valuation evidence can establish.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, consecutive earnings misses and the latest decline in revenue and depletions point to continued execution pressure. Over the multi-year view, higher gross margins show progress from procurement savings and brewery efficiencies, but weaker shipments and limited market-share progress make the broader trajectory mixed.

What Boston Beer Company hinges on

The thesis depends on whether SAM can sustain margin improvements while restoring sales, depletions, and market-share trends. A guidance reversal after the recent increase would further damage credibility; weaker employment could add pressure, while stronger results from sector peers would provide a more supportive backdrop.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, SAM’s long-term thesis is an uncertain execution story: margin progress is real, but recent operating results and earnings misses leave the recovery unproven. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-26
Revenue	—	392.29M
EPS	—	-0.422
Annual ending 2026-12-27
Revenue	—	1.91B
EPS	—	9.307
Annual ending 2027-12-27
Revenue	—	1.91B
EPS	—	10.392

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.39

$10.75 → $10.39 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.91B

$1.96B → $1.91B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.75	$1,959,602,514	7 / 9
2026-07-25	$10.75	$1,959,602,514	7 / 9
2026-07-26	$10.35	$1,923,943,986	7 / 9
2026-07-27	$10.35	$1,923,943,986	7 / 9
2026-07-28	$10.35	$1,923,943,986	7 / 9
2026-07-29	$10.35	$1,923,943,986	7 / 9
2026-07-30	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-07-31	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-01	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-03	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-04	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-05	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-06	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-09	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-10	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$10.30	$1,920,451,804	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-11	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-12	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$10.30	$1,920,451,822	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$10.25	$1,919,729,631	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$10.24	$1,919,024,995	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$10.13	$1,917,115,904	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$10.13	$1,917,115,904	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$10.13	$1,917,115,904	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$10.13	$1,917,115,904	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$10.13	$1,917,115,904	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$10.13	$1,917,115,904	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$10.13	$1,917,115,904	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$10.12	$1,916,593,596	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$10.12	$1,916,593,596	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$10.12	$1,916,593,596	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$10.12	$1,914,767,163	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$10.12	$1,914,767,163	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$10.12	$1,914,767,163	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$10.12	$1,914,767,163	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$10.10	$1,914,558,313	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$10.05	$1,913,916,646	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$10.39	$1,911,099,590	7 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings