Reading ROCK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ROCK free→
Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK)
NASDAQIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$41.47+2.45%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include any changes in guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Building Products & Equipment
- Market cap
- $1.20B
- Employees
- 2,300
- IPO date
- 1996-05-15
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.47. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$47.40consensus
Range $45.34 – $53.47
vs price: -13% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$148.12consensus
Range $125.99 – $149.82
vs price: -72% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $40 ROCK trades at 15× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $47 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
15.4x
peer 18.0x · own history 15.1x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-14%
our forecast 26%
Our fair value
$47.11
range $45.07 – $50.18
WhyValuation methods disagree
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 26%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
37th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.84x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral3 analysts, 100% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.00 → $1.02 (+2.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.headwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$209.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$472.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,465.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for gross profit margins improving to above 25%
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost control. This can lead to making more money.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Gross profit margins exceed 25% in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Gross profit margins drop below 20% in the next earnings report.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ROCK yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TT, JCI, and CARR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting ROCK and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ROCK raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ROCK cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like TT, JCI, and CARR start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping ROCK and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ROCK and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
On May 7, 2026, Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a news release and will hold a conference call regarding financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the news release (the “Release”) is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K under the caption Item 2.02, including the Release, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-6.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.