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NASDAQIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include any changes in guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.47. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $40 ROCK trades at 15× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $47 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 26%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.84x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.00 → $1.02 (+2.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$209.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$472.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,465.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost control. This can lead to making more money.
Confirms:Gross profit margins exceed 25% in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Gross profit margins drop below 20% in the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ROCK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
On May 7, 2026, Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a news release and will hold a conference call regarding financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the news release (the “Release”) is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K under the caption Item 2.02, including the Release, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2022-Q3, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ROCK Gibraltar Industries, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | fair | elevated |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to drive revenue growth across its segments.
The company is working to enhance its gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
The company aims to improve cash flow from operations through better working capital management.
Why it matters: Good cash flow shows strong financial health. It can help with future investments.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations remains positive in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations turns negative again in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Growth in residential sales is key for total revenue and shows market demand.
Confirms:Residential net sales grow year over year by more than 5% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Residential net sales decline year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps reduce debt and keep operations stable.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations turns positive in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost management. This is important for making more money.
Confirms:Gross profit margins increase by more than 2% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Gross profit margins decrease or stay flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is on track. Investors will focus on this.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show that management's focus is working. It can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% compared to Q2 last year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 5% compared to Q2 last year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Executive Officer Compensation - Discretionary Bonuses On April 2, 2026, the Compensation and Human Capital Committee of the Company’s Board of Directors approved special discretionary cash bonus awards (each, a “Special Bonus” and collectively, the “Special Bonuses”) to be paid to certain of the Company’s named executive officers (each, an officer…
On February 26, 2026, Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a news release and will hold a conference call regarding financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the news release (the “Release”) is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K under the caption Item 2.02, including the Release, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act…
by reference. Subject to the terms and conditions set forth in the Agreement, on the Closing Date, Gibraltar acquired from Seller all of Parent’s issued and outstanding equity interests for the Purchase Price. The Purchase Price remains subject to further adjustment pursuant to a customary post-closing adjustment process. The foregoing descriptions of the Agreement and the OmniMax Transaction do not purport to be complete and are qualified in their entirety by reference to the Agreement, a co…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On the Closing Date, Gibraltar entered into a new credit agreement (the “ Credit Agreement ”), as borrower, together with Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent and collateral agent, and the other financial institutions from time to time party thereto. Gibraltar’s obligations under the Credit Agreement are guaranteed by Gibraltar’s existing and subsequently acquired wholly owned domestic subsidiaries, including Parent and certain of its subs…