Reading RLJ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RLJ free→Reading RLJ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RLJ free→NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash backs up reported profits, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the market. Peer multiples imply a price about 39% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include any potential cuts to guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers, which could impact RLJ's momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 RLJ trades at 1× p/s, below its 6× p/s peer median. Our $20 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 44% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 10.14x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.11 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 3 maintained. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 1.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$112.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$235.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,461.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can impact real estate investment costs and consumer spending. This affects RLJ's business.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates in the June 17 meeting.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them in the June 17 meeting.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RLJ yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026 , RLJ Lodging Trust (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exch…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Hotel & Resort REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RLJ RLJ Lodging Trust | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
VICI Vici Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | low |
HST Host Hotels & Resorts | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | low |
RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
APLE Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | low |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing Comparable Hotel EBITDA through operational improvements and strategic initiatives.
Continue to maintain a consistent dividend payout to shareholders.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the real estate market. This would help RLJ Lodging Trust's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is speeding up. It is now above 7% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K. The table below sets forth the voting results for this proposal: Votes For Votes Against Abstentions Broker Non-Votes 109,275,582 3,835,789 51,139 5,252,896 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. RLJ LODGING TRUST Date: April 30, 2026 By: /s/ Leslie D. Hale Leslie D. Hale President and Chief Executive Of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026 , RLJ Lodging Trust (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 11, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), RLJ Lodging Trust (the “Company”), as parent guarantor, and RLJ Lodging Trust, L.P., the Company’s operating partnership (the “Operating Partnership”), as borrower, entered into a Sixth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Amended Credit Agreement”) with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association (“Wells Fargo”), as administrative agent, and the other lenders party thereto. The Amended Credit Agreement a…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth under “