RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ)

NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-10-23

$12.06-0.66%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge RLJ Lodging Trust’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	334.19M
EPS	—	-0.048
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.4B
EPS	—	0.027
Adjusted FFO per share	$1.37–$1.5non-GAAP	—
Capital expenditure	$80M–$90M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.43B
EPS	—	0.037

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations recovers above $26M quarterly	Cash flow from operations is a focus despite recent declines.	Improving	Cash from operations falls below $26M quarterly	Cash from operations: $114.602M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $26M quarterly cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026114,602,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities rose significantly from $26.2 million in 2026-Q1 to $114.6 million in 2026-Q2, indicating improved operational cash flow. The trajectory shows delivering progress in enhancing cash generation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Comparable Hotel EBITDA reaches $324M-$348M in 2026	A primary condition in RLJ Lodging Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >= $324M EBITDA in 2026.	Intact	EBITDA falls below $324M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Comparable Hotel EBITDA grew 7.1% year-over-year to $119.5 million in 2026-Q2 and 7.2% to $89.9 million in 2026-Q1, driven by renovations, conversions, and portfolio strength. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain dividend payout at $0.15 per share	The company maintains a stable dividend of $0.15 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.15 in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.15 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share = $0.15 in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.15 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ad4095e1-5102-4b80-8683-12032243d77c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company consistently declared and paid quarterly dividends of $0.15 per common share and $0.4875 on preferred shares in 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2, maintaining stable dividend payouts as committed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.43B

$1.41B → $1.43B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,406,873,600	3 / 10
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,406,873,600	3 / 10
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,406,873,600	3 / 10
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,406,873,600	3 / 10
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,406,873,600	3 / 10
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,406,873,600	3 / 10
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,406,873,600	3 / 10
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,410,400,470	3 / 10
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,410,400,511	3 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,410,400,470	3 / 10
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,410,400,511	3 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,410,400,470	3 / 10
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,410,400,470	3 / 10
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,410,400,470	3 / 10
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,410,400,470	3 / 10
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,410,400,470	3 / 10
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,410,400,511	3 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,410,400,511	3 / 7
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,410,400,511	3 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,410,400,511	3 / 7
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,410,400,511	2 / 7
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,410,400,511	2 / 7
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,410,400,511	2 / 7
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,410,400,511	3 / 7
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,410,400,511	3 / 7
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,419,686,000	3 / 7
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,419,686,000	4 / 7
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,420,494,300	4 / 7
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,420,494,300	4 / 7
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,420,494,300	4 / 7
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,420,494,300	4 / 7
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,420,494,300	4 / 7
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,420,494,300	4 / 7
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,420,494,300	4 / 7
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,420,494,300	4 / 7
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,420,494,300	4 / 7
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,420,494,300	4 / 7
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,420,494,300	4 / 7
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,420,494,300	4 / 7
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,420,494,300	4 / 7
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,420,494,300	4 / 7
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,419,796,544	4 / 7
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,419,971,612	4 / 7
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,419,971,612	4 / 7
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,421,413,987	4 / 7
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,421,413,987	4 / 7
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,421,413,987	4 / 7
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,421,413,987	4 / 7
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,421,413,987	4 / 7
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,421,413,987	4 / 7
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,421,413,987	4 / 7
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,423,130,767	4 / 7
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,423,130,767	4 / 7
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,423,130,767	4 / 7
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,423,130,767	4 / 7
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,423,130,767	4 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,423,130,767	4 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,423,130,767	4 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,423,130,767	4 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,423,130,767	4 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,423,130,767	4 / 7
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,423,130,767	4 / 7
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,423,130,767	4 / 7
2026-10-11	$0.04	$1,425,204,390	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$0.04	$1,425,204,390	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$0.04	$1,425,204,390	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$0.04	$1,425,204,390	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$0.04	$1,425,204,390	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$0.04	$1,426,193,090	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$0.04	$1,426,193,090	5 / 7
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,426,193,090	4 / 7
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,426,193,090	4 / 7
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,426,193,090	4 / 7
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,427,071,490	4 / 7
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,427,071,490	4 / 7
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,427,071,490	4 / 7
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,427,071,490	4 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	6	3
2026-06-01	3	6	3
2026-07-01	3	6	3
2026-08-01	3	6	3
2026-09-01	3	7	3
2026-10-01	2	7	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 13 · prior Aug 27

$11.00 → $12.00+9.1%

$0$6.60$13.20

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations recovers above $26M quarterlyCash from operations: $114.602M
Comparable Hotel EBITDA reaches $324M-$348M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend payout at $0.15 per shareDividend per share: $0.15 per share

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

RLJ Lodging Trust outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RLJ is a hotel real estate business with a multi-year view tied to operating growth and interest rates. The thesis is on watch: recent momentum and management execution have improved, while overall financial performance remains neutral and below its industry cohort.

What's priced into RLJ Lodging Trust

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure suggests RLJ is cheap versus peers, while another shows a substantial premium, and confidence in the valuation model is low. The priced-in assessment is that expectations are justified, with low fragility; the evidence does not support a clearer claim about how much future growth the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, comparable Hotel EBITDA has grown in both reported quarters, and management raised its full-year EBITDA and adjusted FFO per-share guidance in Q2. Guidance has been raised recently, but a reversal would create a credibility risk; the sector backdrop is also a headwind, despite a low near-term miss-risk reading.

What RLJ Lodging Trust hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on continued EBITDA growth from renovations, conversions, and portfolio strength, alongside management sustaining its guidance. Federal Reserve rate cuts and stronger results or guidance from sector peers could support the backdrop, while a guidance cut would weaken confidence in execution.