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Braemar Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (BHR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$2.04-4.01%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 86% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Hotel & Motel
- Market cap
- $160.44M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2014-03-31
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$13.92consensus
Range $13.92 – $13.92
vs price: -85% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$10.86consensus
Range $10.86 – $10.86
vs price: -81% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $2.12 BHR trades at 0× p/s, below its 6× p/s peer median. Our $15 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.2x
peer 5.6x · own history —
Premium
0.0x peer
Growth the price needs
-86%
our forecast -2%
Our fair value
$14.82
range $14.82 – $14.82
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 86% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
34th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -3.05x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile24 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -7.3% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.41 → $-0.44 (-7.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -7.8% above current price.
Material events
3 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~1.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$160.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$420.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,519.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for better operating income in Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: Better operating income means better cost control. It also means more profit.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Operating income is higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income stays the same or drops from last quarter.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BHR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for BHR and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like HST, RHP, and APLE keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting BHR and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BHR beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HST, RHP, and APLE start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping BHR and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits BHR and other Real Estate names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-107d agoItem 1.01
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On June 4, 2026, Ashford Yountville LP, Ashford Yountville II LP, Ashford Sarasota LP, Ashford TRS Sarasota Residence LLC, Ashford TRS Yountville LLC, Ashford TRS Yountville II LLC and Ashford TRS Sarasota LLC, indirect subsidiaries of Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into an Agreement of Purchase and Sale (the “ Agreement ”) with BRDO Property, LLC, YNTV Property, LLC, 1776 Sarasota Associates, and 1776 Sarasota Golf Associa…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.