Reading BHR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 86% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.12 BHR trades at 0× p/s, below its 6× p/s peer median. Our $15 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 86% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted -3.05x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
24 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.41 → $-0.44 (-7.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -7.8% above current price.
3 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$160.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$420.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,519.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better operating income means better cost control. It also means more profit.
Confirms:Operating income is higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income stays the same or drops from last quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BHR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On June 4, 2026, Ashford Yountville LP, Ashford Yountville II LP, Ashford Sarasota LP, Ashford TRS Sarasota Residence LLC, Ashford TRS Yountville LLC, Ashford TRS Yountville II LLC and Ashford TRS Sarasota LLC, indirect subsidiaries of Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into an Agreement of Purchase and Sale (the “ Agreement ”) with BRDO Property, LLC, YNTV Property, LLC, 1776 Sarasota Associates, and 1776 Sarasota Golf Associa…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Hotel & Resort REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BHR Braemar Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
VICI Vici Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | low |
HST Host Hotels & Resorts | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | low |
RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
APLE Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to pursue strategic acquisitions to enhance portfolio.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Focus on increasing operating income through operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could help Braemar grow and make more money.
Confirms:A press release that confirms the recent M&A deal or new acquisitions.
Disproves:No further announcements or delays in the M&A process.
Why it matters: Growth trends in the sector affect Braemar's performance and market conditions.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up back to earlier highs.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows good finances. It also shows care for shareholders.
Confirms:News about continued or higher dividend payments in the next earnings report.
Disproves:News about a dividend cut or pause.
COMPLETION OF ACQUISITION OR DISPOSITION OF ASSETS. On May 26, 2026, Ashford BC LP and Ashford TRS BC LLC (together “Seller”), indirect subsidiaries of Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. (the “Company”), completed the sale of the Park Hyatt Beaver Creek Resort & Spa located in Avon, Colorado (the “Hotel”) pursuant to an Agreement of Purchase and Sale, dated as of April 27, 2026, by and among Seller and Apres Owner, LLC, as purchaser, for $176 million in cash, subject to customary pro-rations and a…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 21, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. (the “ Company ”) appointed Mr. Eric Batis to the Board to serve until the next annual meeting of stockholders of the Company and until his successor is duly elected and qualified. At the time of his appointment to the Board, Mr. Batis was not appointed to any…
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. Ashford Inc. (“ AINC ”) proposed to the independent directors of the board of directors of Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. (the “ Company ”) to amend the Fifth Amended and Restated Advisory Agreement (as amended, the “ Amended and Restated Advisory Agreement ”). The independent directors of the board of directors of the Company agreed to the proposed amendment, and on May 21, 2026, the parties entered into Amendment No. 3 (the “ Amendment ”) to the Am…
OTHER EVENTS. On June 1, 2026, the Company repaid in full, at scheduled maturity, the outstanding principal amount of approximately $86.25 million of its 4.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026 (the “Notes”), together with all accrued and unpaid interest thereon. The Notes were issued pursuant to the Indenture, dated as of May 18, 2021 (the “Indenture”), between the Company and U.S. Bank National Association, as trustee (the “Trustee”). Following such repayment, all of the Company’s obligatio…