Braemar Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (BHR)

NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-10-23

$1.41-1.40%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Braemar Hotels & Resorts, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	104.03M
EPS	—	-0.49
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	587.66M
EPS	—	-1.8
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	403.59M
EPS	—	0

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share remains at $0.05 per quarter	It keeps paying a stable $0.05 dividend per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.05 next quarter	Dividend per share: $0.05 per share FY2025-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.05 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2025-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Nov 7, 20250.05 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2025-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2025 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: da3e53a7-a73c-405b-8259-c0609061a202. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to at least $39.6M next quarter	Braemar is improving its operating income from a loss to $39.6M.	Broken	Operating income falls below $0 next quarter	Operating income: $30.611M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $39.6M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202630,611,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f8e217d2-1a42-4eea-ae5c-693d91e2b18e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -6% next year	A primary condition in Braemar Hotels & Resorts, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -6% YoY.	Broken	Revenue decline exceeds -6% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 1
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	0	2	0
2026-06-01	0	2	0
2026-07-01	0	2	0
2026-08-01	0	2	0
2026-09-01	0	2	0
2026-10-01	0	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share remains at $0.05 per quarterDividend per share: $0.05 per share
Operating income improves to at least $39.6M next quarterPublished status: Broken
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -6% next yearPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-61.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Braemar Hotels & Resorts, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BHR is a high-risk, loss-making hotel real estate company, with a multi-year thesis tied to improving hotel operations and potential sector support. The thesis is in a watch state, and recent performance has been below its industry cohort without a fresh break in the thesis.

What's priced into Braemar Hotels & Resorts, Inc.

The valuation model indicates BHR is cheap versus peers, with a positive expectations gap, though confidence is medium. That suggests expectations are not especially demanding, but the evidence does not explain which operating assumptions underpin them.

What the fundamentals likely do

In 2026-Q2, comparable Hotel EBITDA grew 14.2% and comparable RevPAR grew 12.3%; company revenue was $171.026 million. These gains show hotel-level operating progress, while the broader financial picture remains neutral and management execution is volatile. Near term, the miss-risk assessment is quiet, but high overall risk and erratic earnings surprises remain concerns.

What Braemar Hotels & Resorts, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends partly on hotel operating performance and EBITDA improving, with M&A activity also a stated area to watch. Near term, Federal Reserve rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while weaker results or guidance from HST, RHP, or APLE could remove sector support.