Reading DRH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DRH free→Reading DRH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DRH free→NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that cash flow does not strongly back reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the current market environment. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any changes in guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers, as these could influence DRH's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.94. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12 the market pays 24× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $12 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $9.50–$12. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.29x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.21 → $0.22 (+2.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.7% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$80.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$217.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,191.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority. Results will show if the company is improving.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is below 2% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DRH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2025, DiamondRock Hospitality Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of that press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, including for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$9.50 – $12.25 (median $11.25) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Hotel & Resort REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DRH DiamondRock Hospitality Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VICI Vici Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | low |
HST Host Hotels & Resorts | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | low |
RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
APLE Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: The sale will affect cash flow and plans for spending. It shows management's plan to improve the portfolio.
Confirms:The hotel sale closes successfully. It brings in more than $30 million.
Disproves:The hotel sale does not close or is delayed beyond Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This report will show performance and any changes to guidance based on recent trends.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows a big rise in Adjusted FFO compared to Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:Earnings report reveals a decline in Adjusted FFO compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The sale will affect cash flow and how money is spent. It shows how management is managing assets.
Confirms:The hotel sale closes well. The funds go into high-return investments.
Disproves:The sale does not close as planned, delaying capital recycling efforts.
Why it matters: Higher Adjusted FFO per share means better profits. It also shows good capital management.
Confirms:Adjusted FFO per share reported above $1.16.
Disproves:Adjusted FFO per share drops below $1.10. This shows weaker earnings.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control. It also means more efficiency.
Confirms:Operating income is over $15M in Q2. This shows good cost control.
Disproves:Operating income is under $15M in Q2. This shows ongoing cost issues.
Why it matters: The Westin Boston Seaport District deal may improve revenue and growth.
Confirms:Revenue from the Westin Boston Seaport District goes up after the new franchise starts.
Disproves:Revenue from the Westin Boston Seaport District goes down or stays the same after the deal.
Why it matters: Better performance in the sector may lead to more demand for hospitality.
Confirms:Sector performance improves to better than -6% over the next 20 days.
Disproves:Sector performance gets worse, staying below -6% for the next 20 days.
Why it matters: How the sector performs affects how investors feel and company value.
Confirms one read:Sector performance gets much better after the CPI report.
Confirms the other:Sector performance gets worse after the CPI report.
Why it matters: Higher RevPAR growth shows strong demand and good pricing. This can boost earnings.
Confirms:Q2 RevPAR growth is above 3.5%.
Disproves:RevPAR growth is below 1.5%. This shows weak demand.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows a focus on returns for shareholders.
Confirms:Dividend per share remains at $0.09 or increases in Q2.
Disproves:Dividend per share drops below $0.09 in Q2, raising concerns about financial health.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, DiamondRock Hospitality Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of that press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, including for the purposes of Section 18 of the Secu…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 24, 2026, William W. McCarten, the Chairman of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of DiamondRock Hospitality Company (the “Company”) informed the Board that he will retire from the Company’s Board at the end of his current term, effective at the adjournment of the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on April 29, 2026 (the “Resignation…