Reading HST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HST free→Reading HST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HST free→NASDAQReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while management's recent track record has been steady and capital-friendly. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on whether HST can maintain its earnings momentum and how sector bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 HST trades at 17× p/e, in line with its 16× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $22–$27. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.53x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.33 → $0.33 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$94.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$219.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $947.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if the company can maintain its growth momentum. Strong guidance signals confidence in demand.
Confirms:Management raises Q2 hotel RevPAR growth forecast to more than 4.5%.
Disproves:Management lowers Q2 hotel RevPAR growth forecast to less than 3.0%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HST yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 31, 2023, Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a distribution agreement (the “Distribution Agreement”), with (i) J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, BofA Securities, Inc, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Jefferies LLC, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., Truist Securities, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as sales agents (in such capacity, each, a “Sales Agent” and collectively, the “Sales Agents”) or forward sellers…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$22.00 – $27.00 (median $23.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Hotel & Resort REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HST Host Hotels & Resorts | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | low |
VICI Vici Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | low |
RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
APLE Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | low |
PK Park Hotels & Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Host Hotels & Resorts aims to increase its Total RevPAR growth guidance for 2026.
Host Hotels & Resorts aims to maintain its revenue guidance for the full year 2026.
Host Hotels & Resorts aims to increase its EPS guidance for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance shows steady demand and good performance.
Confirms:Management says revenue guidance for 2026 is the same or higher.
Disproves:Management cuts revenue outlook for 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows strong performance. It also means good cost management.
Confirms:Q2 net income grows more than 10% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Q2 net income grows less than 5% compared to Q1.
Why it matters: If Total RevPAR guidance goes up, it means the company expects more revenue.
Confirms:Management says Total RevPAR growth guidance for 2026 is now higher.
Disproves:Management keeps or lowers Total RevPAR growth guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance means the company expects to make more money and work better.
Confirms:Management raises EPS guidance for 2026 by more than 10%.
Disproves:Management lowers EPS guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show trends in revenue and profit. Good results may increase investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show net income growth above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings show net income decline or growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The World Cup could increase demand. This may help revenue and occupancy rates.
Confirms:Hotel occupancy rates increase by more than 5% during the World Cup period.
Disproves:Hotel occupancy rates remain flat or decline during the World Cup period.
Why it matters: Total RevPAR growth trends will reflect overall demand strength. Consistent growth supports positive outlook.
Confirms:Total RevPAR growth exceeds 5% in Q2 compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Total RevPAR growth falls below 3% in Q2 compared to Q2 2025.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release referred to supplemental financial information for the quarter that is available on the Company’s website at www.hosthotels.com . A copy of the press release and the supplemental financial information are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Report. The infor…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. The press release referred to supplemental financial information for the quarter that is available on the Company’s website at www.hosthotels.com . A copy of the press release and the supplemental financial information are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Report.…