Reading RHP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RHP free→Reading RHP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RHP free→NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is neutral and management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, although RHP trades above typical levels compared to its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on whether RHP cuts guidance after recently raising it, which could damage credibility, and on the performance of sector bellwethers that could influence momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $123.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $122 the market pays 31× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 26× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $95 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $105–$137. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 29% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.39 → $1.35 (-2.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.1% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$107.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$223.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,669.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue and operating income are still growing. A strong report could boost confidence.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 7% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 3% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RHP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On April 30, 2026, Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and revising guidance for certain financial measures for 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$105.00 – $137.00 (median $122.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Hotel & Resort REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
VICI Vici Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | low |
HST Host Hotels & Resorts | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | low |
APLE Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | low |
PK Park Hotels & Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing revenue through enhanced performance in the Hospitality portfolio.
Aim to enhance operating income through improved operational efficiency and revenue growth.
Commitment to increasing shareholder returns through higher dividends.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would confirm the positive trend from Q1 and support guidance increases.
Confirms:Q2 same-store Hospitality revenue grows year over year by more than 2.8%.
Disproves:Q2 same-store Hospitality revenue growth is less than 2.8% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher ADR shows strong pricing power and demand in Hospitality.
Confirms:Future bookings ADR exceeds $303, showing continued pricing strength.
Disproves:If future bookings ADR drops below $303, it shows possible pricing weakness.
Why it matters: Operating income growth shows how well the company controls costs and makes profits.
Confirms:Q2 operating income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Q2 operating income growth is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows strong cash flow and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend increase above $1.20 per share.
Disproves:No increase in dividend above $1.20 per share.
Why it matters: A drop in bookings would signal weakening demand for group events, impacting revenue.
Confirms:Group room night bookings fall below 460,000 for Q2.
Disproves:Group room night bookings exceed 460,000 for Q2.
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. Indenture On March 11, 2026, Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), its subsidiaries RHP Hotel Properties, LP, a Delaware limited partnership (the “Operating Partnership”), and RHP Finance Corporation (together with the Operating Partnership, the “Issuers”), and certain of the Company’s other subsidiaries named as guarantors (each such subsidiary and the Company individually, a “Guarantor” and, collectively the “…
CREATION OF A DIRECT FINANCIAL OBLIGATION OR AN OBLIGATION UNDER AN OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENT OF A REGISTRANT. To the extent applicable, the information included above in
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On February 23, 2026, Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and the year ended December 31, 2025 and providing guidance for certain financial measures for 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The Company will hold a conference call to discuss its financial results for the quarter and the yea…