DiamondRock Hospitality Company (DRH)

NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-10-23

$13.76-0.94%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge DiamondRock Hospitality Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	279.91M
EPS	—	0.121
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.15B
EPS	—	0.781
Adjusted FFO per share	$1.18–$1.23non-GAAP	—
EBITDA	$310M–$320Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.17B
EPS	—	0.657

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain or grow dividend per share	The dividend per share rose to $0.09 recently.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.08 annualized	Dividend per share: $0.09 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.36 annualized dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7538b09f-97b7-4935-91a4-6b2032a24503. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividends per share increased from $0.09 in 2026-Q1 to $0.11 in 2026-Q2, reflecting a 22% increase announced in July 2026. Management has consistently declared regular quarterly dividends and increased them, demonstrating delivery on this commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS near $1.14 in FY26	The dividend per share rose to $0.09 recently.	Improving	EPS falls below $1.0 per share in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.44 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.14 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.44 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7538b09f-97b7-4935-91a4-6b2032a24503. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stabilize or improve operating income	A supporting condition in DiamondRock Hospitality Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= $20 million quarterly operating income.	Improving	operating income falls below $15 million quarterly	Operating income: $28.621M FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $20 million quarterly operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Apr 30, 202628,621,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q1 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $1.14 billion in FY26	Revenue is expected near $1.14 billion in 2026.	Broken	revenue falls below $1.0 billion in FY26	Revenue: $318.286M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.14 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026318,286,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7538b09f-97b7-4935-91a4-6b2032a24503. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.17B

$1.16B → $1.17B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,162,991,954	4 / 8
2026-07-25	$0.57	$1,162,991,950	5 / 11
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,162,991,954	4 / 8
2026-07-27	$0.57	$1,162,991,950	5 / 11
2026-07-28	$0.57	$1,162,991,950	5 / 11
2026-07-29	$0.57	$1,163,640,320	5 / 11
2026-07-30	$0.57	$1,163,640,320	5 / 11
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,163,856,645	3 / 8
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,163,856,645	3 / 8
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,163,856,640	2 / 11
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,163,856,640	2 / 11
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,163,856,645	3 / 8
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,163,768,560	2 / 11
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,163,768,560	2 / 11
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$1,163,856,645	3 / 8
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,163,856,645	3 / 8
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,163,768,560	2 / 11
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,163,768,560	2 / 11
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$1,163,768,560	2 / 11
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,163,856,645	3 / 8
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,163,768,560	2 / 11
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,163,856,645	3 / 8
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,163,856,645	3 / 8
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,163,856,645	3 / 8
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,163,856,645	3 / 8
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,163,856,645	3 / 8
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,163,856,645	3 / 8
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,167,006,230	3 / 8
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,167,006,230	3 / 8
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,167,006,230	3 / 8
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,167,709,502	3 / 8
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,167,709,502	3 / 8
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,167,709,502	3 / 8
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,167,709,502	3 / 8
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,167,709,502	3 / 8
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,167,709,502	3 / 8
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,167,709,502	3 / 8
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,169,840,853	3 / 8
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,169,840,853	3 / 8
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,169,840,853	3 / 8
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,169,840,853	3 / 8
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,169,840,853	3 / 8
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,169,840,853	3 / 8
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,169,840,853	3 / 8
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,169,840,853	3 / 8
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,169,840,853	3 / 8
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,169,840,853	3 / 8
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,169,840,853	3 / 8
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,169,840,853	3 / 8
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,171,306,230	3 / 8
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,171,306,230	3 / 8
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,171,306,230	3 / 8
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,171,306,230	3 / 8
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,171,306,230	3 / 8
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,171,306,230	3 / 8
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,170,817,411	3 / 8
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,170,817,411	3 / 8
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,170,817,411	3 / 8
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,171,371,053	3 / 8
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,171,918,853	3 / 8
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,171,918,853	3 / 8
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,170,920,957	3 / 8
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,170,920,957	3 / 8
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,170,920,957	3 / 8
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,170,920,957	3 / 8
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,170,920,957	3 / 8
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,170,920,957	3 / 8
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,170,920,957	3 / 8
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,170,920,957	3 / 8
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,170,920,957	3 / 8
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,170,920,957	3 / 8
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,172,159,230	3 / 8
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,172,159,230	3 / 8
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,173,187,430	3 / 8
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,174,625,521	3 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	7
2026-06-01	7	7
2026-07-01	7	7
2026-08-01	7	7
2026-09-01	7	7
2026-10-01	7	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 12 · prior Aug 18

$11.00 → $12.00+9.1%

$0$6.60$13.20

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain or grow dividend per shareDividend per share: $0.09 per share
EPS near $1.14 in FY26Diluted EPS: $0.44 per share
Stabilize or improve operating incomeOperating income: $28.621M
Revenue near $1.14 billion in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-10.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

DiamondRock Hospitality Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

DRH is a real estate investment with a measured improvement thesis, supported by stronger recent earnings and consistent capital allocation priorities. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable, and recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into DiamondRock Hospitality Company

DRH is cheap versus peers, while the evidence indicates that current expectations are close to the model’s view. The valuation signal is described as justified, with low fragility, so the snapshot does not point to unusually stretched expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the past year, net income attributable to common stockholders and adjusted funds from operations per share both increased, and management has repeatedly emphasized operational execution and disciplined capital allocation. Dividends also increased, and the company began repurchasing shares; near term, the miss risk is assessed as low, though a past deep miss and the industry’s high miss rate remain cautions.

What DiamondRock Hospitality Company hinges on

A key risk is whether DRH can preserve credibility after raising guidance; a later cut would weaken the thesis. Over the next few years, lower interest rates and continued earnings strength at sector peers could support the sector backdrop, while the recent acquisition adds a development to monitor.