Reading POWW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track POWW free→Reading POWW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track POWW free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it trades below typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 121% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as both could significantly impact performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.03 POWW trades at 5× p/s — 1.4× the 3× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $0.90 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 125% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.07x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
20 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.01 (+33.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$145.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$487.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,270.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum fell by 60.0 points (from 0.0 to -60.0) after fresh earnings.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious' after fresh earnings.
Composite insight fell by 12.5 points (from -2.6 to -15.1) after fresh earnings.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth picks up, it may help Outdoor Holding Co. recover. This could improve investor sentiment.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for POWW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 9, 2026, Outdoor Holding Company (the “Company”) reported its financial results for the fiscal quarterly period ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release issued by the Company in this connection is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item in this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
POWW Outdoor Holding Co. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 10 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Other Information. On February 20, 2026, the Company and its wholly owned subsidiary, Outdoors Online, LLC (d/b/a GunBroker.com) (“Outdoors Online”), entered into a Settlement Agreement and Mutual Release (the “Settlement Agreement”) with Innovative Computer Professionals, Inc., d/b/a Digital Cash Processing (“DCP”), resolving the previously disclosed litigation pending in the United States District Court for the District of Minnesota (the “DCP Litigation”). The DCP Litigation arose from a di…
Other Events On January 4, 2026, the Board of Directors of Outdoor Holding Company (the “Company”) authorized a discretionary share repurchase program pursuant to which the Company may repurchase up to $15.0 million of its outstanding common stock over a period of twelve (12) months. Repurchases under the program may be made from time to time, in management’s discretion, through open market purchases, privately negotiated transactions, and other means in accordance with federal securities law…
Other Events On December 15, 2025, the SEC issued a settlement order that concludes and resolves, in its entirety, the previously disclosed SEC investigation. Under the terms of the settlement, the SEC did not impose a civil penalty, but the Company agreed to cease and desist from committing or causing any violations and any future violations of specified provisions of the federal securities laws and rules promulgated thereunder. The settlement order is filed as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and incorp…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Officer On November 14, 2025, Elizabeth Cross, who serves as the Chief Operating Officer of the GunBroker division of Outdoor Holding Company (the “ Company ”), delivered notice to the Company of her resignation, effective November 28, 2025. Ms. Cross’s resignation did not result from any disagreement with the Company on any matter r…