Reading PMTS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes from PMTS and the performance of sector bellwethers like V, MA, and AXP. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19 PMTS trades at 7× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 31% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.52x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.63 → $0.53 (-15.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$200.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$516.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,504.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A decline in revenue growth signals weakening demand in the financial sector. This could impact CPI Card Group's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth drops below the median for the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median for the last three years.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PMTS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 5, 2026, CPI Card Group Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Earnings Release”). A copy of the Earnings Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PMTS CPI Card Group, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AXP American Express | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COF Capital One | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | full | elevated |
SYF Synchrony Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 4 of 100 | expensive | high |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
CPI Card Group aims for high single-digit revenue growth for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $147.1M in 2026-Q1, down from $153.1M in 2025-Q4, indicating a decline. Despite the stated goal of high single-digit growth, the trajectory shows limited progress so far.
“CPI today also affirmed its financial outlook for 2026, which projects high single-digit revenue growth”
“where we are targeting greater than 15% revenue growth for the year”
CPI Card Group aims to keep its Net Leverage Ratio between 2.5x and 3.0x by year-end 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company has not provided specific leverage ratio figures in the financials, making it difficult to assess progress. The priority remains a focus, but substantive delivery is unclear.
“Year-end Net Leverage Ratio between 2.5x and 3.0x”
CPI Card Group targets low-to-mid single-digit growth in Adjusted EBITDA for 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The financials do not provide specific Adjusted EBITDA figures, making it challenging to evaluate progress. The priority is newly stated, with limited visibility into delivery so far.
“Adjusted EBITDA: low-to-mid single-digit growth”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 5, 2026, CPI Card Group Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 (the “Earnings Release”). A copy of the Earnings Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Segment Realignment Effective for the quarter ending March 31, 2026, the Company implemented a change in the structure of its reportable segments to align with its internal management repor…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) and (c) On February 13, 2026, CPI Card Group Inc. (the “Company”) announced that the Company and Jeffrey Hochstadt, Chief Financial Officer, agreed that he will cease serving as Chief Financial Officer effective as of February 13, 2026. Mr. Hochstadt will continue serving the Company through June 30, 2026 as an employee in an advisory capacit…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 4, 2025, CPI Card Group Inc.’s (the “Company’s) significant stockholders Tricor Pacific Capital Partners (Fund IV), Limited Partnership and Tricor Pacific Capital Partners (Fund IV) US, Limited Partnership (together, the “Tricor Funds”), affiliated with Parallel49 Equity, ULC, collectively sold approximately 1.9 million shares of the Company’s common stock (the “Common Stock”) to a wholly-owned affiliate of Tricor Pacific Capital Inc., T…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 4, 2025, CPI Card Group Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025 (the “Earnings Release”). A copy of the Earnings Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.