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Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$63.87-0.41%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, helping the company. Peer multiples imply a price about 51% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. What it hinges on includes any potential guidance cuts, which could negatively impact estimates and the stock's performance. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Information Technology Services
- Market cap
- $3.37B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2017-04-28
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-14
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $63.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$130.44consensus
Range $106.45 – $145.91
vs price: -51% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$300.90consensus
Range $120.47 – $343.61
vs price: -79% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $64 PENG trades at 33× p/e, below its 70× p/e peer median. Our $130 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
33.4x
peer 70.0x · own history 13.0x
Premium
0.5x peer
2.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
-51%
our forecast -6%
Our fair value
$130.44
range $103.77 – $145.91
WhyExtended vs its own historyPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 51% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
95th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.98x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
62nd pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +6.9% / 30d, n=4for period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.66 → $0.70 (+6.9% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.5% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$245.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$478.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,457.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 earnings results on July 14, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing in a slowing growth sector.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below the median for the sector.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above the median for the sector.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PENG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for PENG and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like IBM, ACN, and CTSH keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting PENG and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PENG raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-06-01), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If PENG cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-06-01), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like IBM, ACN, and CTSH start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping PENG and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0116d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 26, 2026, Nate Olmstead notified Penguin Solutions, Inc. (the “Company”) of his decision to resign as the Company’s Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”), effective as of July 8, 2026, to pursue another opportunity in a different industry. His departure is not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.