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Origin Materials Inc (ORGN)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$1.15+3.15%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is unassessable since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 73% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Chemicals
- Market cap
- $6.30M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2020-06-25
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-13
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$4.29consensus
Range $4.29 – $4.29
vs price: -73% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $1.15 ORGN trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $4.25 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.3x
peer 1.1x · own history —
Premium
0.3x peer
Growth the price needs
-73%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$4.25
range $4.25 – $4.25
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 73% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
5th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.12x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: materials is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme copper/electrification.headwind-3.0%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$395.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$901.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $9,594.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for news on RFP status from management.
Why it matters: Better RFP status may mean stronger market demand and more project wins.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management states that RFP status has improved to strong.
Disproves:Management says RFP status is still weak or getting worse.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-0313d agoYahoo! Finance
Threatens: Implement organizational realignment
Closures may hinder organizational realignment efforts.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If ORGN reverses course and raises guidance next quarter (came in LOWERED as of 2026-03-27), that's a sharp positive shift. The Street usually rewards a 'crisis averted' bounce-back.
- If sector bellwethers like DOW, CE, and OLN keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting ORGN and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like DOW, CE, and OLN start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping ORGN and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ORGN and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If ORGN misses again next quarter like this past one (a very large miss off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-011mo agoItem 2.05
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities On May 1, 2026, Origin Materials, Inc. (the “Company” or “Origin”) announced that its the Board of Directors (the “Board”) had approved the dissolution and liquidation of the Company pursuant to a plan of complete liquidation and dissolution (the “Plan of Dissolution”), subject to stockholder approval. Origin intends to call a special meeting of the stockholders to seek approval of the Plan of Dissolution and will file proxy materials relating…
Product or strategy shiftnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.