Reading NVTS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NVTS free→Reading NVTS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NVTS free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Peer multiples imply a price about 309% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact NVTS's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24, NVTS's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 114× p/s (9.5× the 12× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~448% near-term growth vs our ~-17% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $4.33 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $14–$21. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 448% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.34x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.04 → $-0.04 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$518.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$991.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,825.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows growth progress. It is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported at or above $10M.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue reported below $9M.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NVTS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chair of the Executive Steering Committee of the Board — Dr. Ranbir Singh: Dr. Ranbir Singh resigned as a member of the board of directors without providing any reason.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$13.70 – $21.00 (median $20.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NVTS Navitas Semiconductor Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 15 of 100 | expensive | high |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to increase revenue to $10 million in the second quarter of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $7.3M in 2025-Q4 to $8.6M in 2026-Q1, showing progress towards the $10M target for Q2 2026. The trajectory indicates delivering on this growth priority.
“Second quarter 2026 net revenues are expected to increase to $10.0 million, plus or minus $0.5 million.”
“Guidance for Q2 2026 revenue is set at $10 million.”
Management targets a non-GAAP gross margin of 39.25% for the second quarter of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. While the specific gross margin for 2026-Q1 is not provided, management has consistently targeted a 39.25% margin for Q2 2026. The focus remains on achieving this cost efficiency target.
“Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 39.25%, plus or minus 75 basis points.”
“Targeting a gross margin of 39.25% for Q2 2026.”
Management is focused on improving operating income over the coming quarters.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income improved from -$41.4M in 2025-Q4 to -$27.8M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in reducing losses. The trajectory shows limited progress towards profitability.
Why it matters: Better operating income means improved cost management. This is key for long-term growth.
Confirms:Operating income is higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income is lower than last quarter.
Why it matters: This margin shows good cost control and strong pricing power. It impacts overall profits.
Confirms:Gross margin reported at or above 39.25% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Gross margin reported below 37% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can impact strategy and investor confidence. It is key to monitor.
Confirms one read:Announcement of a new board member or executive to fill Dr. Singh's role.
Confirms the other:There are no new appointments or more leadership issues.
Other Events. On June 15, 2026, Navitas Semiconductor Corporation (the “Company”) issued an aggregate of 3,280,666 shares of the Company’s Class A common stock, par value of $0.0001 per share (the “Class A common stock”), in satisfaction of its obligations with respect to Triggering Event III (as defined in that certain Business Combination Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Business Combination Agreement”), dated as of May 6, 2021, by and among the Company’s predecessor entity (then…
Other Events. On June 4, 2026, Navitas Semiconductor Corporation (the “Company”) issued an aggregate of 3,283,844 shares of the Company’s Class A common stock, par value of $0.0001 per share (the “Class A common stock”), comprised of (a) 3,277,438 shares issued in satisfaction of its obligations with respect to Triggering Event II and (b) 6,406 shares issued to certain employees of the Company (net of tax withholding) in satisfaction of its obligations with respect to Triggering Event I and T…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 18, 2026, Navitas Semiconductor Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Settlement, Release and Amendment Agreement (the “Settlement Agreement”), by and between the Company and Live Oak Sponsor Partners II, LLC (“Live Oak Sponsor”). As set forth in that certain Business Combination Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Business Combination Agreement”), dated as of May 6, 2021, by and among the Company’s predecessor entity (then named…
Other Events. On May 22, 2026, Navitas Semiconductor Corporation (the “Company”) issued 3,277,438 shares of the Company’s Class A common stock, par value of $0.0001 per share (the “Class A common stock”), in satisfaction of its obligations with respect to Triggering Event I (as defined in that certain Business Combination Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Business Combination Agreement”), dated as of May 6, 2021, by and among the Company’s predecessor entity (then named Live Oak Acqu…
“Operating income improved from -$41.4M in 2025-Q4 to -$27.8M in 2026-Q1.”
“Focus on improving operating income.”