Reading NTST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NTST free→Reading NTST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NTST free→
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 82% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.02. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $20 NTST trades at 8× p/s — 1.5× the 6× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $14 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $22–$24. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 47% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 10.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.06 → $0.09 (+50.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$84.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$178.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,123.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can impact NETSTREIT's costs for financing. They can also change market conditions.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points or more.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NTST yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 20, 2026, NETSTREIT Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$22.00 – $24.00 (median $22.25) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Retail REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NTST NETSTREIT Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SPG Simon Property Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | low |
O Realty Income | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | low |
KIM Kimco Realty | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | low |
REG Regency Centers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has increased the net investment activity guidance to $550 million to $650 million for 2026.
The company reaffirmed its full year 2026 AFFO per share guidance in the range of $1.35 to $1.39.
The company has consistently maintained its dividend per share, with a slight increase to $0.22 in 2026-Q1.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can change the demand for NETSTREIT's properties and rental income.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease more than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a stronger market position for NETSTREIT.
Confirms:Revenue growth speeds up to over 7% compared to last year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Other Events. New At-the-Market Offering Program On April 21, 2026, NETSTREIT Corp. (the “Company”) and NETSTREIT, L.P., the Company’s operating partnership (the “Operating Partnership”), entered into an equity offering sales agreement with Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated (“Baird”), BNY Mellon Capital Markets, LLC (acting through BTIG, LLC as agent) (“BNY Mellon”), BTIG, LLC (“BTIG”), Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Capital One Securities, Inc.…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 10, 2026, NETSTREIT Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or inco…
Other Events. On February 13, 2026, NETSTREIT Corp., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), completed a public offering of 12,627,000 shares of its common stock, $0.01 per share (the “Common Stock”), including 1,647,000 shares sold pursuant to the Underwriters’ (as defined below) option, at the public offering price of $19.00 per share of Common Stock (the “Offering”), pursuant to an underwriting agreement, dated February 11, 2026 (the “Underwriting Agreement”), among (i) the Company, (ii) N…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 12, 2026, NETSTREIT Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release providing an update on its fourth quarter and full year 2025 business activities and providing its initial full year 2026 guidance. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as a…