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NETSTREIT Corp. (NTST)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$20.02+0.30%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 82% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Retail
- Market cap
- $1.95B
- Employees
- 29
- IPO date
- 2020-10-30
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-22
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.02. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$10.98consensus
Range $6.97 – $12.61
vs price: +82% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$22.04consensus
Range $20.73 – $23.36
vs price: -9% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $20 NTST trades at 8× p/s — 1.5× the 6× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $14 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $22–$24. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
8.2x
peer 5.6x · own history —
Premium
1.5x peer
Growth the price needs
47%
our forecast 25%
Our fair value
$13.57
range $8.31 – $14.98
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 47% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
95th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 10.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
93rd pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +50.0% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.06 → $0.09 (+50.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.5% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$84.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$178.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,123.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for FOMC decisions on June 17
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can impact NETSTREIT's costs for financing. They can also change market conditions.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points or more.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NTST yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for NTST and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SPG, O, and KIM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting NTST and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If NTST beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +10% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If NTST reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-20), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like SPG, O, and KIM start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping NTST and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-201mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 20, 2026, NETSTREIT Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+6.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.