Reading NSA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NSA free→Reading NSA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NSA free→NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers, where NSA is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. If NSA cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $44.90. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $45, NSA's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 59× p/e (4.1× the 14× p/e peer median, and 1.2× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~5% near-term growth vs our ~1% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $43 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 5% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.09 → $0.07 (-23.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 8% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 1.1% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$110.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$247.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,417.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows care for shareholders.
Confirms:The company announces a dividend per share of $0.57 or higher.
Disproves:The company announces a cut in the dividend per share below $0.57.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NSA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026 , National Storage Affiliates Trust (the "Company") issued an earnings release and supplemental schedules announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the earnings release and supplemental schedules are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The full text of the earnings release and supplemental schedules are also available through the Company's website at www.ns…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NSA National Storage Affiliates Trust | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | full | moderate |
WPC W. P. Carey | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | low |
LAMR Lamar Advertising Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | low |
OHI Omega Healthcare Investors | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the dividend per share at $0.57 as a capital allocation priority.
Provide guidance for Core FFO per share for the fiscal year 2026.
Provide earnings per share guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend may show management's view on cash flow after the merger.
Confirms one read:Management maintains the dividend at $0.57 per share.
Confirms the other:Management cuts the dividend below $0.57 per share.
Why it matters: High unemployment can affect consumer spending and demand for storage. This is important for NSA's business outlook.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims fall below 200,000. This shows a strong job market.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims go above 300,000. This shows economic weakness.
Why it matters: If the real estate sector shows renewed growth, it could benefit NSA's performance. This is crucial for future prospects.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth returns to above 3% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still below 0%. This shows it is slowing down.
Why it matters: Management thinks future earnings will be good and stable.
Confirms one read:Management provides Core FFO guidance in the range of $2.13 to $2.25 per share.
Confirms the other:Management lowers or withdraws Core FFO guidance a lot.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Merger Agreement On March 16, 2026, National Storage Affiliates Trust, a Maryland real estate investment trust (the “Company”), NSA OP, LP, a Delaware limited partnership (the “Partnership” and, together with the Company, the “Company Parties”), Public Storage, a Maryland real estate investment trust (“Parent”), Public Storage OP, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (“Parent OP”), Pelican Merger Sub I, LLC, a Maryland limited liability company and…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 15, 2026, the Compensation, Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board recommended to the Board, and the Board approved, that the Company enter into Transaction Bonus Agreements (the “Transaction Bonus Agreements”) with six executives of the Company to recognize their services and support in connection with the Mergers and…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026 , National Storage Affiliates Trust (the "Company") issued an earnings release and supplemental schedules announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the earnings release and supplemental schedules are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The Company will hold its fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call on Thursday, February 26, 2026 at 1:00 p.m.…