Reading NPKI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NPKI free→Reading NPKI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NPKI free→NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 83% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.78. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 NPKI trades at 34× p/e — 1.9× the 18× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $8.09 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 83% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.13 → $0.13 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$162.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$349.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,794.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can impact borrowing costs and spending in the industrial sector. This could affect NPKI's growth.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This shows confidence in the economy.
Confirms the other:FOMC lowers or keeps interest rates the same. This shows worries about the economy.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NPKI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the information in the exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Use of Non-GAAP Financial Inf…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NPKI NPK International, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Raise full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance based on strong first quarter performance.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $305M-$325M to $310M-$325M for 2026. Revenue for 2026-Q1 was $75.07M, slightly down from $75.195M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving the higher guidance.
“We are raising our full-year fiscal 2026 guidance based on strong first quarter performance.”
“For the full year 2026, NPK currently anticipates revenues in a range of $305 million to $325 million.”
Allocate $30 million to $35 million for manufacturing expansion in 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. CAPEX guidance for 2026 is $75M-$90M, with $30M-$35M allocated for manufacturing expansion. This indicates a strategic focus on increasing production capacity, but financials do not yet show the impact of this allocation.
Target adjusted EBITDA in the range of $92 million to $102 million for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased from $88M-$100M to $92M-$102M for 2026. Operating income for 2026-Q1 was $14.423M, up from $12.565M in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards achieving the higher EBITDA target.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the industrials sector. This may benefit NPK International.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up again. It is now above 5%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays below 5%. It may keep slowing down.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the information in the exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Use of Non-GAAP Financial Inf…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. The information provided in
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 24, 2025, NPK Holdings LLC (“NPK Holdings”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of NPK International Inc. (“Company”), entered into a share sale and purchase agreement (the “Share Purchase Agreement”) and completed the acquisition of the entire issued share capital of Grassform Plant Hire Limited (“Grassform”), a private limited company incorporated in England and Wales, from the shareholders of Grassform (the “Sellers”). Under the terms of the S…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 10, 2025, NPK International Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Gregg S. Piontek, age 55, the Company’s Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer will be assuming the role of the Company’s principal accounting officer effective immediately. As part of the Company’s efforts to streamline the organization and cost structure, Dougl…
“Capital expenditures include $30 million to $35 million from manufacturing expansion.”
“Adjusted EBITDA in a range of $92 million to $102 million for 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA in a range of $88 million to $100 million for 2026.”