Reading NPK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NPK free→Reading NPK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NPK free→NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, NPK is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If NPK cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $127.93. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $128 NPK trades at 28× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median. Our $169 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 25% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$144.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$334.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,332.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP data can signal economic health. It influences spending in the industrial sector.
Confirms one read:GDP shows growth above 2% in the third estimate.
Confirms the other:GDP shows growth below 2% in the third estimate.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NPK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 1, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release regarding the registrant’s results of operations for the fiscal quarter ended April 5, 2026. The full text of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. Such Exhibit shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amend…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2012-Q1, 2012-Q2, 2012-Q3, 2013-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NPK National Presto Industries, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing shipments from the Defense segment backlog to boost sales.
Resolve startup issues at the new warehousing facility to improve sales and reduce losses.
Introduce and market the full line of Rely FX™ ultra durable, specialty commercial fire extinguishers.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is performing. It can affect investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Earnings results show revenue growth above 6% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings results show revenue growth below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth speeds up, it may help National Presto's performance. This could signal a better environment for the company.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can show economic problems. This may hurt National Presto's sales. This data helps us understand what consumers want.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000 for the week.
Disproves:Unemployment claims fall below 250,000 for the week.
Why it matters: CPI changes can impact consumer spending and inflation. This affects the industrial sector.
Confirms one read:CPI shows an increase above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:CPI shows a decrease or no change month over month.
Why it matters: The launch of new products is critical for growth in the Safety segment.
Confirms:Sales from new Safety segment products go over $5 million in the first quarter.
Disproves:Sales from new products fall below $2 million in the same timeframe.
Why it matters: Sales dropped 15.6% last quarter due to startup issues. Signs of improvement show recovery.
Confirms:Housewares/Small Appliance segment sales rise by at least 10% each quarter.
Disproves:Sales continue to decline or stay flat for another quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 27, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release regarding the registrant’s results of operations for the year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. Such Exhibit shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amend…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 27, 2026, the registrant received notice that after almost 16 years with the Company and 10 years as Vice President of Engineering, pursuant to personal plans, Jeff Morgan will retire and resign his Officer position as of April 30, 2026.