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Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$41.46-0.65%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, quality intact. The valuation is supported by steady recent financials and earnings quality. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
- Market cap
- $525.73M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2006-01-06
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$40.89consensus
Range $34.53 – $41.96
vs price: +1% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$30.65consensus
Range $30.65 – $30.65
vs price: +35% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $42 NGS trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $42 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
21.8x
peer 21.5x · own history —
Premium
1.0x peer
Growth the price needs
0%
our forecast 20%
Our fair value
$42.35
range $35.47 – $43.59
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
79th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
78th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -5.4% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.46 → $0.43 (-5.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
2 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.8 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$107.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$382.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,500.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for net income growth continuing
Why it matters: Net income growth shows better profits. This can bring in more investors.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Net income increases beyond $6.8 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Net income falls below $6.8 million.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NGS yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SLB, BKR, and HAL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting NGS and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If NGS raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-11), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit NGS and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If NGS cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-11), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SLB, BKR, and HAL start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping NGS and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-152d agoItem 2.01
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. The information set forth in
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.