Reading NGS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NGS free→Reading NGS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NGS free→
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, quality intact. The valuation is supported by steady recent financials and earnings quality. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $42 NGS trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $42 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.46 → $0.43 (-5.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
2 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$107.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$382.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,500.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Net income growth shows better profits. This can bring in more investors.
Confirms:Net income increases beyond $6.8 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Net income falls below $6.8 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NGS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. The information set forth in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NGS Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SLB Schlumberger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BKR Baker Hughes | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
HAL Halliburton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | full | moderate |
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has increased its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $92.5 million to $97.5 million.
The company expects 2026 maintenance capital expenditures to range from $15 million to $18 million.
The company aims to increase net income, as evidenced by the growth from $4.1 million in 2025-Q4 to $6.8 million in 2026-Q1.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth improves, it could benefit NGS. This signals a stronger market environment.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth rises above 2% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: New M&A activity can signal growth opportunities. It may impact future revenue and market position.
Confirms:They announced more M&A deals or partnerships after the June 10 agreement.
Disproves:No new M&A announcements or delays in planned activities.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Flatrock Acquisition On June 12, 2026, Natural Gas Services Group, Inc., a Colorado corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Flatrock Compression Holdings LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Flatrock”), the holders of all of the membership interests of Flatrock (each, a “Seller” and, collectively, the “Sellers”), and Mule Deer Sky LLC, a Texas limited liability company, solely…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. In connection with the election of John E. Jackson to the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (the “Company”) at the 2026 annual meeting of shareholders (the “Meeting”) of the Company discussed below in Item 5.07, on June 10, 2026, the Company entered into an indemnification agreement with Mr. Jackson (the “Indemnification Agreement”) pursuant to which the Company agreed to indemnify Mr. Jackson in connection with cl…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
The issuance of the Equity Consideration to the Sellers was completed in reliance upon the exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), provided by Section 4(a)(2) thereof as a transaction by an issuer not involving any public offering. The Company relied on this exemption from registration based in part on representations made by the Sellers.