Reading NCSM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NCSM free→Reading NCSM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NCSM free→NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 64% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If NCSM cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $53.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $54 NCSM trades at 8× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $148 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 64% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=249).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.47 → $-0.88 (-87.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$218.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$557.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,325.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth gets better, it shows a good change in the energy sector.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the energy sector rises above 2%.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth stays at or below 2%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NCSM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 31, 2026, NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ NCS ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”), by and among NCS, Weatherford International plc, an Irish public limited company (“ Weatherford ”), and Trinity Bell Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Weatherford (“ Merger Sub ”), pursuant to which, upon the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein, Mer…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NCSM NCS Multistage Holdings Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
SLB Schlumberger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BKR Baker Hughes | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
HAL Halliburton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Achieve at least $15 million in annual cost synergies within 18 months of merger closing.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company has not yet provided specific financial results or milestones related to this cost synergy target. The financials show a decline in revenue from $50.63M in 2025-Q4 to $45.64M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress on cost synergies so far.
“Annual cost synergies are expected to be at least $15 million and be realized within 18 months of closing.”
Remain confident in executing the long-term growth strategy for 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Despite management's confidence in executing the long-term growth strategy, revenue declined from $50.63M in 2025-Q4 to $45.64M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in growth execution.
“We remain confident in our full year 2026 outlook and believe we are well positioned to execute our long-term growth strategy.”
The merger deal is expected to be immediately accretive to adjusted Free Cash Flow per share.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company has not yet provided specific financial results or milestones related to this expectation. Cash from operating activities decreased from $13.13M in 2025-Q4 to $1.28M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress on this priority.
“The deal is expected to be immediately accretive to adjusted Free Cash Flow per share.”
Why it matters: Changes in unemployment claims can affect how much people spend and the economy.
Confirms one read:Unemployment claims fall a lot compared to the weeks before.
Confirms the other:Unemployment claims rise or remain steady compared to previous weeks.
Other Events. On June 1, 2026, NCS and Weatherford issued a joint press release captioned “Weatherford Announces Definitive Agreement to Acquire NCS Multistage, Expanding Completions Portfolio and Unconventional Resource Exposure”. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Important Additional Information and Where to Find It This communication does not constitute an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or se…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 4, 2026, NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2025, NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this