Reading MTZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTZ free→Reading MTZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTZ free→NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If MTZ cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $369.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $369 MTZ trades at 54× p/e — 1.6× the 35× p/e peer median, and above its own 38× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $245 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $326–$518. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 45% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 23%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.14 → $2.22 (+3.8% / 30d). 11 raised, 3 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 95% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 32.6% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$170.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$454.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,330.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Confirming this guidance would signal strong earnings potential for the year.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS guidance confirmed at $8.79 during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS guidance revised down from $8.79.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Achieve 22% revenue growth in 2026
AI investment aligns with growth objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information contained in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$326.00 – $518.00 (median $452.50) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-05-13
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction & Engineering.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PWR Quanta Services | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FIX Comfort Systems USA | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EME Emcor | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | moderate |
STRL Sterling Infrastructure | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
MasTec aims to achieve a 22% revenue growth for the fiscal year 2026.
MasTec has increased its EPS guidance to $6.77 for the fiscal year 2026.
MasTec aims to increase its Adjusted EPS guidance to $8.79 for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows MasTec is on track with its growth goals for 2026.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth of 22% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 22% year over year.
Why it matters: Growing backlog shows that future revenue could be strong.
Confirms:Backlog reported above $20 billion in the next earnings release.
Disproves:Backlog is less than $20 billion.
Why it matters: A recovery in free cash flow is crucial for funding growth initiatives.
Confirms:Free cash flow turns positive in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in unemployment claims show how strong the economy is. This impacts MasTec's business.
Confirms one read:Unemployment claims fall below 200,000. This shows a stronger job market.
Confirms the other:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000. This shows a weaker job market.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth picks up, it could boost MasTec's performance. This is crucial as the sector is currently maturing.
Confirms:3-year revenue growth in the sector re-accelerates back toward its highs, above 6%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is slowing down. It is below 6%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information contained in