Reading FLR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FLR free→Reading FLR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FLR free→NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If FLR reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that's a sharp positive shift. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $50.47. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $50 FLR trades at 32× p/e, below its 35× p/e peer median. Our $68 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $48–$60. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 26% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.65 → $0.70 (+7.8% / 30d). 5 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$187.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$431.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,019.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A significant drop in new awards would signal weak demand and hurt growth prospects.
Confirms:New awards in Q2 fall below $1.35 billion, down more than 50% year over year.
Disproves:New awards in Q2 exceed $2.7 billion, showing strong demand.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FLR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section. Furthermore, this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The Company includes backlog and new awards data in the E…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$48.00 – $60.00 (median $58.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-02-19
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction & Engineering.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FLR Fluor | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 13 of 100 | fair | elevated |
PWR Quanta Services | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FIX Comfort Systems USA | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EME Emcor | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | full | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to improve cash flow through operational efficiencies and cost management.
Management is committed to enhancing profitability through cost control and operational efficiencies.
Management aims to sustain revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is crucial for funding growth and returning value to shareholders.
Confirms:Operating cash flow for 2026 exceeds $300 million.
Disproves:Operating cash flow falls below $300 million.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is a top priority for Fluor. It impacts their ability to invest and grow.
Confirms:Management says cash flow improved by at least 10% from the last quarter.
Disproves:Management says cash flow went down or did not improve from the last quarter.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Fluor improved cash flow and profitability. This is key for future growth.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better cash flow. Profitability metrics are also better than last quarter.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows cash flow and profitability metrics worse than last quarter.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is key for Fluor's financial health. A strong cash flow signals better management.
Confirms:Q2 cash flow from operations is over $110M. This shows continued improvement.
Disproves:Q2 cash flow from operations falls below $110M, indicating cash flow issues.
Why it matters: Stable or rising revenue would help keep revenue growth on track.
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 revenue shows growth or stabilization compared to Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:Q2 2026 revenue drops more year over year, showing ongoing revenue issues.
Why it matters: A smaller backlog may mean lower future revenue. It can also show project issues.
Confirms:Backlog falls below $25 billion.
Disproves:Backlog remains above $25 billion or grows.
Why it matters: A new cut shows ongoing project problems. This could lower investor confidence.
Confirms:The 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance is now $525 to $560 million. This is a decrease.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA guidance stays at $525-$560 million or goes up.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows that profit efforts are working. This can help investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 net income is more than $160M. This confirms profit improvements.
Disproves:Q2 net income is below $160M. This suggests profit challenges.
Why it matters: New awards above this level would show that demand is going up. Project activity is recovering.
Confirms:New awards in Q2 2026 exceed $3 billion, indicating strong market demand.
Disproves:New awards fall below $2 billion, suggesting ongoing weakness in project wins.
Why it matters: Backlog data shows future revenue potential. A strong backlog means growth chances.
Confirms:The earnings release has backlog growth or new awards data. This shows strong demand.
Disproves:Earnings release shows backlog decline or lack of new awards, signaling weak demand.
Why it matters: Maintaining revenue growth is crucial for Fluor's long-term success. It shows market demand.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year in Q2.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth is below 2% year over year in Q2.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 26, 2026, FDEE Consulting, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Fluor Corporation (the "Corporation"), entered into a Consulting Agreement (the “Consulting Agreement”) with Mr. Mark E. Fields, the Corporation’s former Group President, Strategic Projects, pursuant to which Mr. Fields will provide advisory and consultation services to the Corp…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Retirement of Executive Chairman of the Board On March 3, 2026, Mr. David E. Constable, Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Fluor Corporation (the “Corporation), informed the Board that he will not stand for reelection at the next annual meeting of stockholders to be held on May 6, 2026, and will retire from the Corporatio…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section. Furthermore, this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The Company includes backlog and new awards data in the E…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 3, 2026, the Board of Directors of Fluor Corporation (the “Corporation”) appointed Mr. James P. Elliott to serve as the Corporation’s Chief Accounting Officer, effective February 4, 2026. Mr. Elliott, age 47, currently serves as Corporate Controller of the Corporation, which position he has held since 2025. He was previously Director, T…