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Construction Partners, Inc. (ROAD)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$122.01+1.44%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Market cap
- $6.80B
- Employees
- 6,399
- IPO date
- 2018-04-06
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $122.01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$100.87consensus
Range $87.91 – $108.20
vs price: +21% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$240.62consensus
Range $211.28 – $390.81
vs price: -49% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $120 ROAD trades at 49× p/e — 1.4× the 35× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $102 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $130–$169. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
48.9x
peer 35.1x · own history —
Premium
1.4x peer
Growth the price needs
18%
our forecast 40%
Our fair value
$102.01
range $88.35 – $111.76
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 20% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 40%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
47th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.70x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
83rd pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral1 positive, 1 negative material events / 30dfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.07 → $1.09 (+1.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.7% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$211.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$456.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,655.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q3 operating income results
Why it matters: Operating income results will show how well the company manages costs. This is key for future profitability.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Operating income improves year over year by more than 5%.
Disproves:Operating income declines year over year or stays flat.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-079d agoYahoo! Finance
New guidance suggests positive shifts in investment story.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting ROAD and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ROAD beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If ROAD reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-08), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping ROAD and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ROAD and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-089d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed, Construction Partners, Inc. (the “Company”), certain of its wholly owned subsidiaries in their capacity as co-borrowers (collectively with the Company, the “Borrowers”), and certain of the Company’s wholly owned subsidiaries in their capacity as guarantors (collectively with the Borrowers, the “Loan Parties”) are party to that certain Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (as amended from time to time, the “Term Loan A…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.