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Legence Corp. (LGN)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-07-06
Intact
$77.78+2.57%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
The thesis is that LGN's strong recent performance will continue to drive growth. Revenue growth is expected to be solid, supported by favorable sector trends. The stock trades at a fair valuation compared to peers, suggesting modest growth is priced in. If LGN cuts guidance on the next call, it could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Market cap
- $12.45B
- Employees
- 7,000
- IPO date
- 2025-08-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-13
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $77.78. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$76.48
Range $28.29 – $85.60
vs price: +2% above
Method agreement : high · 12 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$134.71consensus
Range $48.88 – $105.94
vs price: -42% below
Method agreement : medium · 4 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$178.16consensus
Range $64.64 – $140.11
vs price: -56% below
Method agreement : medium · 4 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for LGN right now, so treat our $73 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts target $60–$125. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
31%
our forecast 51%
Our fair value
$73.21
range $23.08 – $86.97
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
(median $85.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-06-22
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price sits about 31% above a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 51% growth — below our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
120.6xP/E · peer median
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2491).
26th pctl · Industrials
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +27.0% / 30d, n=8for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.29 → $0.37 (+27.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 94% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -6.5% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$237.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$700.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,585.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 17d
Watch for Legence to raise full year 2026 revenue guidance
Why it matters: A guidance raise would show strong growth momentum. It confirms the positive trend in revenue.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Legence raises its full year 2026 revenue guidance above $4.3B.
Disproves:Legence keeps its revenue guidance at $4.1B or lowers it.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-191mo agoInvesting.com South Africa
Advances: Raise Full Year 2026 Revenue Guidance
Increased price target reflects positive outlook on revenue growth.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in Industrials.
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC meetings
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting LGN and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If LGN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-14), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If LGN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-14), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping LGN and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits LGN and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-141mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, Legence Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, including for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Excha…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-6.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.