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Granite Construction, Inc. (GVA)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$145.19+2.71%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Market cap
- $6.18B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-05-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $145.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$154.58consensus
Range $143.38 – $219.41
vs price: -6% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$256.63consensus
Range $216.25 – $297.42
vs price: -43% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $141 GVA trades at 22× p/e, below its 35× p/e peer median. Our $155 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
22.5x
peer 35.1x · own history 22.0x
Premium
0.6x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-9%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$155.43
range $145.87 – $221.55
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
37th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
78th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +5.4% / 30d, n=4for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.21 → $2.33 (+5.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.3% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$116.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$211.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,469.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for Q2 revenue guidance confirmation
Why it matters: Confirming the raised revenue guidance shows strong demand and growth momentum.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management confirms Q2 revenue guidance in the range of $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion.
Disproves:Management retracts or lowers the Q2 revenue guidance.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GVA yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting GVA and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GVA beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If GVA reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-30), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping GVA and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits GVA and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0215d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Notes Offering On June 2, 2026, Granite Construction Incorporated (the “Company”) closed its offering of $600.0 million aggregate principal amount of its 6.375% senior notes due 2034 (the “Notes”). The Notes were sold in a private offering to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”) and to certain non-U.S. persons in transactions outside the United S…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.