Granite Construction, Inc. (GVA)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$116.65-2.04%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Gross profit improvement sustained above $110 million per quarter: gross profit $238.8M vs $110M target.
Granite Construction raised its 2026 revenue guidance to about $5.3 billion. The company grew revenue 30% year over year in Q1 and improved gross profit by $26 million. It issued $600 million in senior notes to support capital needs. Management maintains a $0.13 dividend per share.
Revenue guidance was cut recently despite the Q1 beat. The stock is correcting amid legal and capital allocation concerns. Profit margins may face pressure with lowered other income guidance near 8.5%.
The price is about 2% below our fair value near $150. Analysts expect roughly 15% revenue growth, which aligns with management's raised guidance. Our view is cautious given recent guidance cuts and market pullback.
Breaks if: failure to complete or manage $600 million senior notes issuance
Complete the issuance of $600 million in senior notes due 2034 to support financial obligations.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with medium confidence. GVA is currently navigating through a phase of loss-making and volatile management, which complicates its long-term thesis.
The market seems to have priced in a cheap valuation compared to peers, but there is a significant expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully anticipate the potential for continued challenges in earnings and management execution.
Fundamentals are mixed, with management successfully raising revenue guidance but facing recent earnings misses. The near-term risk is moderate, as the company has a history of erratic earnings surprises.
The future of GVA will depend on sector performance, particularly the results of key competitors like PWR, FIX, and EME. Any changes in guidance from these companies could significantly impact GVA's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company raised its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance. This suggests positive momentum and potential growth. However, the latest earnings report showed a miss, which raises concerns. Cost pressures may also hinder gross profit improvement going forward.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.13
Continue paying quarterly dividends at $0.13 per share to shareholders as part of capital allocation strategy.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently maintained the quarterly dividend at $0.13 per share from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q1. This steady dividend payment reflects delivery on the capital allocation commitment.
“Dividend per share maintained at $0.13.”
“Dividend per share of $0.13 declared.”
“Dividend per share of $0.13 paid.”
“Dividend per share of $0.13 declared.”
Breaks if: gross profit falls below $110 million per quarter
Breaks if: revenue falls below $5.2 billion in FY26
Increase 2026 revenue guidance reflecting strong organic growth and acquisitions, aiming for sustained elevated growth into 2027.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance from $4.9-$5.1 billion to $5.3-$5.5 billion, reflecting strong organic growth and acquisitions. Q2 2026 revenue grew 29% year-over-year to $1.46 billion. The trajectory is delivering with sustained elevated growth expected through 2027.
“We are raising our annual revenue guidance range by $100 million.”
“We are increasing our fiscal year 2026 guidance. We expect 2026 to be a year of meaningful growth.”
“We expect our top-line momentum to continue in 2026 driven by organic growth as we work through our record CAP.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, GVA's performance will be closely tied to sector dynamics and management execution. Not investment advice.