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Dycom Industries (DY)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$470.98+0.42%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, but compared with sector peers, DY is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Market cap
- $14.08B
- Employees
- 19,556
- IPO date
- 1995-03-16
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-26
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $470.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$470.98consensus
Range $453.83 – $483.37
vs price: 0% at
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$957.13consensus
Range $853.46 – $1119.59
vs price: -51% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $471 DY trades at 35× p/e, in line with its 35× p/e peer median. Our $471 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $475–$654. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
35.1x
peer 35.1x · own history 33.0x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
0%
our forecast 25%
Our fair value
$470.98
range $452.96 – $483.37
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
50th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
74th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +15.3% / 30d, n=8for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $4.10 → $4.72 (+15.3% / 30d). 8 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.7% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$162.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$414.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,443.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and rose to fair from full. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry. The risk dimension is moderate, suggesting a stable level of uncertainty. The management dimension is stable, reflecting consistent leadership.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for backlog growth to continue beyond $11.9 billion
Why it matters: Growing backlog means strong future revenue and demand for Dycom's services.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Total backlog is over $11.9 billion in the next quarters.
Disproves:Total backlog drops or does not grow much from $11.9 billion.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DY yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting DY and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If DY raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-27), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If DY cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-27), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping DY and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits DY and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2721d agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K by reference. The information in the preceding paragraphs, as well as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. It may only be incorporated by reference into another filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”) if such subsequent filing specifically references this Cur…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.