Reading STRL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STRL free→Reading STRL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STRL free→NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 92% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact STRL's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $866.67. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $867 STRL trades at 68× p/e — 1.9× the 35× p/e peer median, and above its own 24× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $449 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $510–$950. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 93% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 33%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $4.99 → $4.97 (-0.4% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.3% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$296.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$715.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,102.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is still on track. Investors look for signs of growth.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 6% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 6% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STRL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 9, 2026, Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that it has closed on the acquisition of Stone Ridge Contracting, LLC., a Pocatello, Idaho-based site development contractor. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$510.00 – $950.00 (median $889.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction & Engineering.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STRL Sterling Infrastructure | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PWR Quanta Services | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FIX Comfort Systems USA | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EME Emcor | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | full | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding E-Infrastructure Solutions through acquisitions and organic growth.
Focus on increasing overall revenue growth through strategic initiatives and acquisitions.
Continue to enhance operating income through cost management and strategic growth.
Focus on increasing cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Changes in leaders can change company plans and results. Stability is key.
Confirms one read:New leadership is announced with a clear strategic vision for growth.
Confirms the other:Leadership changes lead to uncertainty or lack of clear direction.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows future revenue potential. Strong growth means good demand for services.
Confirms:Backlog increases by at least 10% from the previous quarter.
Disproves:Backlog growth is flat or negative. This suggests there may be demand problems.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can change company direction. This can impact performance. It's important to watch.
Confirms one read:New plans were announced after the CEO's contract was extended.
Confirms the other:There are no new plans or strategy changes after the CEO's contract was extended.
Why it matters: Increasing cash flow shows the company is managing its finances well. This can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations decreases or stays flat in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This acquisition could boost revenue and margins in the E-Infrastructure segment. Investors will look for signs of successful integration and growth.
Confirms:Q2 revenue goes up by at least 10% from Q1. This is due to Stone Ridge's help.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is less than 5%. This shows problems with integration or weak results from Stone Ridge.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows faster, it could help Sterling's revenue. This is important for overall performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now close to 8% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 20, 2026, on the recommendation of the Compensation & Talent Development Committee (the “Compensation Committee”) of its Board of Directors (the “Board”), the Board approved and Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into the first amendment to the Amended and Restated Executive Employment Agreement dated January 1, 2024 with…
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, unless the Company specifically states that the information is to be considered “filed” under the Exchange Act, nor shall it be incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company pursuant to the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), other than to the e…
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, unless the Company specifically states that the information is to be considered “filed” under the Exchange Act, nor shall it be incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company pursuant to the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), other than to the e…