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Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$866.67+0.89%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 92% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact STRL's outlook. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Market cap
- $26.36B
- Employees
- 4,400
- IPO date
- 1995-10-16
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $866.67. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$445.74consensus
Range $352.39 – $521.86
vs price: +92% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$1238.53consensus
Range $1009.10 – $1783.94
vs price: -31% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $867 STRL trades at 68× p/e — 1.9× the 35× p/e peer median, and above its own 24× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $449 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $510–$950. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
68.5x
peer 35.1x · own history 24.2x
Premium
1.9x peer
2.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
93%
our forecast 33%
Our fair value
$448.95
range $359.04 – $524.46
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 93% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 33%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
89th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
54th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish6 analysts, 100% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $4.99 → $4.97 (-0.4% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.3% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$296.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$715.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,102.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 earnings on August 3rd
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is still on track. Investors look for signs of growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 6% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 6% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STRL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting STRL and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If STRL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-09), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If STRL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-09), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping STRL and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits STRL and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-098d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 9, 2026, Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that it has closed on the acquisition of Stone Ridge Contracting, LLC., a Pocatello, Idaho-based site development contractor. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.