Reading APG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APG free→Reading APG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APG free→NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $42 APG trades at 31× p/e, below its 35× p/e peer median. Our $48 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $52–$55. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.44 → $0.44 (+0.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 4 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
2 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$141.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$277.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,783.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Onyx-Fire is expected to add $190 million in annual revenue. This will show if the acquisition boosts APi's growth.
Confirms:Onyx-Fire contributes more than $15.8 million in revenue for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Onyx-Fire contributes less than $15.8 million in revenue for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for APG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure On June 9 2026, APi Group Corporation (NYSE: APG) (“APi” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing (i) the closing of the previously announced acquisition of Onyx-Fire Protection Services, Inc. ("Onyx-Fire") and (ii) updates to the Company's Q2 and full-year 2026 financial guidance. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$52.00 – $55.00 (median $54.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-07
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction & Engineering.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
APG APi Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PWR Quanta Services | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FIX Comfort Systems USA | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EME Emcor | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue acquisitions to strengthen the Safety Services segment, focusing on non-discretionary, regulatory-driven, recurring revenue.
Raise full-year guidance for net revenues and adjusted EBITDA, reflecting strong business trends and recent acquisitions.
Focus on improving operating income through revenue growth and margin expansion.
APi Group has announced a share buyback program as part of its capital allocation strategy.
APi Group aims to increase cash generated from operating activities to support growth.
Why it matters: The company raised its EBITDA guidance to $1,165 million to $1,225 million. This shows strong performance.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA for the year exceeds $1,225 million.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA for the year falls below $1,165 million.
Why it matters: The company closed a $500 million senior notes offering. This could affect its capital structure and growth plans.
Confirms one read:The financing can help grow operational capacity. It can also lead to new acquisitions.
Confirms the other:The financing can lead to higher debt costs or limits on operations.
Why it matters: A share buyback program may show that management believes in the company's value.
Confirms:Details of the share buyback program are announced, including the amount and timing.
Disproves:No details on the share buyback program are provided in the next quarter.
Notes Offering On May 14, 2026, the Issuer completed its offering of $500,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of 5.750% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “Notes”) in a transaction exempt from registration under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). The Notes were issued under an indenture, dated as of May 14, 2026 (the “Indenture”), by and among the Issuer, the guarantors party thereto and Computershare Trust Company, N.A., as trustee. The Notes mature on June 1, 2034, and…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, APi Group Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorpor…
Other Events. On May 7, 2026, APi Group Corporation (the “Company”), the parent company of APi Group DE, Inc. (“APi Group DE”), announced the launch of a $500 million senior unsecured notes (the “Notes”) offering by APi Group DE. The Company also announced that APi Group DE intends to amend its existing credit agreement (the “Amendment”) to, among other things, extend the maturity of the Company’s Term Loan B facility to 2033, upsize the Company’s revolving credit facility to $1.0 billion, an…