APi Group (APG)

NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$39.45+1.68%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge APi Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.99 → 2.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2.36B
EPS	—	0.499
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.38B–$2.43B	8.99B
EPS	—	1.736
EBITDA	$1.15B–$1.21Bnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	9.7B
EPS	—	1.997

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Annual revenue from acquisitions exceeds $365 million	The company adds $365 million in annual revenue from acquisitions.	Intact	Acquisition-related revenue contribution falls below $300 million annually	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management closed acquisitions including Onyx-Fire ($190M revenue) and WTech ($175M revenue) in 2026-Q2 and Q2 respectively, contributing to Safety Services growth. The trajectory is delivering with acquisitions integrated and contributing to revenue expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Share repurchase program progresses after $500 million senior notes issuance	A supporting condition in APi Group's published investment case. The stated target is Share buyback program active post-May 2026.	Intact	No meaningful share repurchases executed within 12 months after May 2026	Buyback program active (qualitative) May 2026 $500M notes issued; Q2 earnings in line; no negative buyback signals reported. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company completed a $500 million senior notes offering and announced a share buyback program. No subsequent quarters provided updates on execution, so progress is limited to announcement stage. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Adjusted EBITDA margin at or above 13.9% in Q1 FY26	Profit margins improve, with adjusted EBITDA margin rising to about 13.9% in early 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 13.0% in Q1 FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded from 11.9% in 2026-Q1 to 13.8% in 2026-Q2, with Safety Services segment earnings margin stable at 17.0%. Management's focus on disciplined customer and project selection is reflected in margin improvements, indicating delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Total revenue reaches at least $8.66 billion in FY26	A primary condition in APi Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $8.66 billion.	Intact	Total revenue falls below $7.9 billion in FY26	Revenue: $2.254B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.66 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20262,254,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 735f3608-45a8-4799-98ff-bc11549f7080. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management closed acquisitions including Onyx-Fire ($190M revenue) and WTech ($175M revenue) in 2026-Q2 and Q2 respectively, contributing to Safety Services growth. The trajectory is delivering with acquisitions integrated and contributing to revenue expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.00

$1.98 → $2.00 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$9.70B

$9.39B → $9.70B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.98	$9,392,778,340	9 / 9
2026-07-25	$1.98	$9,392,778,340	9 / 9
2026-07-26	$1.98	$9,392,778,340	9 / 9
2026-07-27	$1.98	$9,392,778,340	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$1.98	$9,392,778,340	9 / 9
2026-07-29	$1.98	$9,392,778,340	9 / 9
2026-07-30	$1.98	$9,392,778,340	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$1.97	$9,505,768,400	9 / 9
2026-08-01	$1.97	$9,505,768,400	9 / 9
2026-08-02	$1.98	$9,600,026,330	10 / 10
2026-08-03	$1.98	$9,600,026,330	10 / 10
2026-08-04	$1.98	$9,605,715,568	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.99	$9,655,752,480	11 / 11
2026-08-06	$1.99	$9,655,752,480	11 / 11
2026-08-07	$1.98	$9,605,715,568	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$1.99	$9,675,856,440	12 / 12
2026-08-09	$1.99	$9,675,856,440	12 / 12
2026-08-10	$1.99	$9,675,856,440	12 / 12
2026-08-11	$1.99	$9,675,856,440	12 / 12
2026-08-12	$1.99	$9,675,856,440	12 / 12
2026-08-13	$1.99	$9,675,856,440	12 / 12
2026-08-14	$1.98	$9,605,715,568	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.98	$9,605,715,568	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$1.98	$9,605,715,568	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$1.98	$9,605,715,568	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$1.98	$9,605,715,568	6 / 8
2026-08-19	$1.98	$9,605,715,568	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$1.98	$9,605,715,568	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$1.99	$9,675,770,688	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-11	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-12	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$1.99	$9,674,907,466	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$1.99	$9,675,177,574	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$1.99	$9,675,177,574	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$1.99	$9,675,177,574	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$1.99	$9,675,177,574	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$1.99	$9,675,177,574	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$1.99	$9,675,177,574	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$1.99	$9,675,177,574	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$1.99	$9,679,802,574	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$1.99	$9,686,554,977	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$1.99	$9,686,554,977	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$1.99	$9,686,554,977	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$1.99	$9,691,201,310	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$1.99	$9,691,201,310	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$1.99	$9,691,201,310	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$2.00	$9,701,247,479	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$2.00	$9,701,247,479	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$2.00	$9,701,247,479	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$2.00	$9,701,247,479	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$2.00	$9,701,247,479	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$2.00	$9,701,247,479	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$2.00	$9,701,247,479	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$2.00	$9,701,247,479	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.00	$9,701,247,479	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$2.00	$9,701,247,479	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$2.00	$9,701,247,479	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	0	0
2026-06-01	11	0	0
2026-07-01	10	0	0
2026-08-01	11	0	0
2026-09-01	11	0	0
2026-10-01	11	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Annual revenue from acquisitions exceeds $365 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Adjusted EBITDA margin at or above 13.9% in Q1 FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Total revenue reaches at least $8.66 billion in FY26Revenue: $2.254B

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

APi Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through acquisitions and revenue expansion. The current thesis state is stable, but confidence has shifted to medium due to recent performance and sector challenges.

What's priced into APi Group

The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, but APG is currently seen as expensive compared to its peers. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that some growth may already be anticipated.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with its priorities, showing robust earnings quality and consistent revenue growth. However, there is a moderate risk as recent industry performance has been mixed, which could impact future results.

What APi Group hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support APG's growth. Conversely, any negative shifts in their performance could pose risks to APG's trajectory.