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Track J free→Jacobs Solutions (J)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$124.59-1.90%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, J is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This valuation is based on the fact that J trades below peer multiples, and its recent financials and earnings quality are stable. If J reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that would be a credibility hit. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Market cap
- $15.00B
- Employees
- 43,000
- IPO date
- 1994-02-10
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $124.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$193.43consensus
Range $128.29 – $240.66
vs price: -36% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$302.63consensus
Range $214.79 – $391.66
vs price: -59% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $125 J trades at 19× p/e, below its 35× p/e peer median. Our $197 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $150–$169. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.7x
peer 35.1x · own history 19.4x
Premium
0.5x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-37%
our forecast 10%
Our fair value
$196.94
range $131.15 – $240.66
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
37th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
54th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral13 analysts, 65% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.83 → $1.83 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 11 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 31.3% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -7.2% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$120.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$296.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,444.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for the completion of the spin-off and merger with Amentum
Why it matters: This event marks a major restructuring for Jacobs. It will define the future of both companies.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The spin-off and merger are completed on September 27, 2024, as planned.
Disproves:The spin-off or merger may be delayed. It might not meet regulatory conditions.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for J yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting J and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If J beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +7% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If J reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-05), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping J and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits J and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
99.1 Press Release dated May 5, 2026 announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended March 27, 2026 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File - the cover page XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document The information disclosed pursuant to Items 2.02 and 9.01 in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibits, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+6.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.