Jacobs Solutions (J)

NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$141.08-0.63%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Jacobs Solutions’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Share repurchases of at least $472 million YTD	The company repurchased $472 million of shares, showing smart capital use.	Intact	Share repurchases fall significantly below $472 million YTD	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Share repurchases totaled $252 million in 2026-Q1 and increased to $614 million year-to-date by 2026-Q2. In 2025, repurchases reached record levels, including $101 million in Q3 and $1.1 billion combined with dividends for the full year. Management is delivering consistent capital return through share repurchases. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Free cash flow yield near 3%	Free cash flow yield is steady at 3%.	Intact	Free cash flow yield falls below 2%	Free cash flow yield: 3.82% As of 2026-10-15; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 15, 20263.82 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 15, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: J:2026-10-15. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 14.75%	Profit margins stay near 14.75%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 14%	Gross margin: 19.89% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~14.75%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202619.887671 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 70925b65-85cd-4cf3-931d-bc757b30fe80. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 10% annually	A primary condition in Jacobs Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26	Revenue growth: 34.46% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202634.456528 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 70925b65-85cd-4cf3-931d-bc757b30fe80. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-26 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenueUnavailable

$10.81B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$10,814,455,667	3 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$10,814,455,667	3 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$10,814,455,667	3 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$10,814,455,667	3 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$10,814,455,667	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$10,814,455,667	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$10,814,455,667	3 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$10,814,455,667	3 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$10,814,455,667	3 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$10,731,455,667	3 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$10,731,455,667	3 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$10,731,455,667	3 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$10,710,989,000	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$10,710,989,000	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$10,710,989,000	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	7
2026-06-01	11	6
2026-07-01	11	6
2026-08-01	10	6
2026-09-01	10	6
2026-10-01	10	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

KeyBancOct 15 · prior Sep 8

$168.00 → $166.00-1.2%

Truist FinancialOct 5 · prior Aug 5

$161.00 → $160.00-0.6%

$0$92.40$184.80

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Share repurchases of at least $472 million YTDDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow yield near 3%Free cash flow yield: 3.82%
Gross margin near 14.75%Gross margin: 19.89%
Revenue growth at or above 10% annuallyRevenue growth: 34.46%

Next proof point

Nov 19, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Jacobs Solutions outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a moderate-risk industrial company with a focus on growth and strategic acquisitions. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has been neutral and management confidence has decreased.

What's priced into Jacobs Solutions

The market appears to have priced in a stretched valuation compared to peers, indicating high expectations for future performance. There is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that investors may be anticipating significant growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with key priorities, including increasing revenue and earnings guidance, and completing strategic acquisitions. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, especially given the recent performance of industry peers.

What Jacobs Solutions hinges on

The future performance of J hinges on the ability to maintain or raise guidance without credibility issues. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME will be crucial in determining the overall momentum in the Industrials sector.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, J's performance will depend on management execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.