Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)

NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$355.30-4.70%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sterling Infrastructure’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

25.35 → 25.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	933.33M
EPS	—	4.446
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$4B–$4.15B	4.11B
EPS	$17.25–$17.85 $19.7–$20.3non-GAAP	20.022
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.01B
EPS	—	25.778

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase cash from operations	A supporting condition in Sterling Infrastructure's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operations >= $165.6M in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $85M in 2026-Q1	Cash from operations: $162.453M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $165.6M in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 2026162,453,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating cash flow increased from $170M in first half 2025 to $328M in first half 2026. Cash and cash equivalents rose from $390.7M at 2025-Q4 to $464.5M at 2026-Q2. Management is delivering improved cash generation and liquidity consistent with stated financial flexibility goals. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow E-Infrastructure revenue strongly	A primary condition in Sterling Infrastructure's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain E-Infrastructure revenue growth above 47% YoY in 2026-Q1.	Broken	E-Infrastructure revenue growth falls below 47% YoY in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. E-Infrastructure Solutions revenue grew from $310.4M in 2025-Q2 to $905.0M in 2026-Q2 (+192%), with adjusted operating income increasing from $83.8M to $210.8M (+148%). Backlog increased 165% year-over-year at 2026-Q2. Management is delivering strong growth and backlog expansion consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase operating income	Profit rose sharply, with operating income up 146%.	Broken	Operating income falls below $56M in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $219.261M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $137.8M in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 2026219,261,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ff04abbb-fdc6-46ee-8dcd-afe6878d9eb9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased from $104.6M in 2025-Q2 to $219.3M in 2026-Q2 (+110%). Adjusted EBITDA margins reached 22% in 2026-Q2, with margin expansion in E-Infrastructure and Transportation segments. Management is delivering improved profitability consistent with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain strong revenue growth near guidance	A primary condition in Sterling Infrastructure's published investment case. The stated target is ~$190M revenue in FY26.	Broken	revenue falls below $180M in FY26	Revenue: $1.168B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$190M revenue in FY26. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 4, 20261,168,179,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ff04abbb-fdc6-46ee-8dcd-afe6878d9eb9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total revenue grew from $614.5M in 2025-Q2 to $1.17B in 2026-Q2 (+90%). Management raised full year 2026 revenue guidance from $3.7-$3.8B in 2026-Q1 to $4.0-$4.15B in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong momentum and backlog expansion. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$25.78

Unavailable → $25.78 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.01B

Unavailable → $5.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	$25.79	$4,964,933,330	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$25.79	$4,964,933,330	5 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	$24.76	$4,866,194,250	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$24.76	$4,866,194,250	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$24.76	$4,866,194,250	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$24.76	$4,866,194,250	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$25.25	$4,922,015,500	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$25.25	$4,922,015,500	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-08-31	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-01	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-02	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-03	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-18	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-19	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-20	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-21	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-22	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-23	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-24	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-25	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-26	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-27	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-28	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-29	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-09-30	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-10-01	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-10-02	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-10-03	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-10-04	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-10-05	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-10-06	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-10-07	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-10-08	$25.35	$4,933,358,222	7 / 7
2026-10-09	$25.36	$4,944,567,333	7 / 7
2026-10-10	$25.36	$4,944,567,333	7 / 7
2026-10-11	$25.36	$4,944,567,333	7 / 7
2026-10-12	$25.36	$4,944,567,333	7 / 7
2026-10-13	$25.63	$4,998,456,222	7 / 7
2026-10-14	$25.63	$4,998,456,222	7 / 7
2026-10-15	$25.70	$5,012,278,444	7 / 7
2026-10-16	$25.78	$5,012,278,444	7 / 7
2026-10-17	$25.78	$5,012,278,444	7 / 7
2026-10-18	$25.78	$5,012,269,378	7 / 7
2026-10-19	$25.78	$5,012,269,378	7 / 7
2026-10-20	$25.78	$5,012,269,378	7 / 7
2026-10-21	$25.78	$5,012,269,378	7 / 7
2026-10-22	$25.78	$5,012,269,378	7 / 7
2026-10-23	$25.78	$5,012,269,378	7 / 7
2026-10-24	$25.78	$5,012,269,378	7 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	0	0
2026-06-01	7	0	0
2026-07-01	7	0	0
2026-08-01	8	0	0
2026-09-01	8	0	0
2026-10-01	8	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

KeyBancOct 15 · prior Aug 5

$754.00 → $755.00+0.1%

Stifel NicolausOct 8

$742.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$415.25$830.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase cash from operationsCash from operations: $162.453M
Grow E-Infrastructure revenue stronglyPublished status: Broken
Increase operating incomePublished status: Broken
Sustain strong revenue growth near guidancePublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-64.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sterling Infrastructure outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a fast-growing infrastructure and construction business with strong recent results, rather than a steady, low-risk compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but risk is high and company quality has recently weakened.

What's priced into Sterling Infrastructure

The valuation evidence is mixed: STRL is tagged as fairly supported by its expectations, while one measure says it is cheap versus peers and another shows a peer premium. Confidence in these valuation measures is low, and the expectations gap is negative, so the market’s assumptions are not fully clear.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent execution is strong: second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 90% year over year, operating income rose 110%, and management raised full-year revenue guidance. E-Infrastructure growth and backlog expansion support the multi-year thesis, though sector headwinds and a history of erratic earnings results remain risks.

What Sterling Infrastructure hinges on

The key test is whether STRL can deliver on its raised guidance without reversing course, since a cut could hurt management credibility as well as the outlook. Over the multi-year view, continued growth in E-Infrastructure and supportive results from sector peers would help sustain momentum; weaker peer results could remove that support.