Dycom Industries (DY)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$290.49-4.10%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $284 million in Q2 2026: Q2 FY27 Adj EBITDA $284M vs $284M target.
Dycom raised its 2027 revenue guidance to about $7.38 billion. Profit targets also rose to $284 million EBITDA. The company beat Q1 earnings by 62.5%. Growth is strong but the stock is selling off sharply.
The recent sharp selloff shows investors doubt Dycom's growth. Revenue growth could slow below 20%. Profit margins might weaken under sector headwinds.
The price is about 9% below our fair value near $461. Analysts expect 20% revenue growth. Our fair value is 26% below the Street median, showing more cautious views.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $202 million in Q2 2026
Grow Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA and improve margin through operational leverage and segment growth.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on revenue growth and capability expansion through acquisitions. The current thesis state is cautious due to recent performance below industry peers and elevated risk factors.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below peers. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the stock is not currently seen as highly vulnerable to significant negative events.
Management is on track to meet its revenue and EBITDA growth targets, which could support fundamentals in the near term. However, the recent decline in company momentum and the history of erratic earnings surprises suggest that performance could be inconsistent.
The future trajectory hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME, as their success or failure will influence DY's momentum. Additionally, any guidance cuts from management could negatively impact investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Dycom raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance. The new range is $7.48 billion to $7.66 billion. However, management cited margin pressure in the Communications segment. This pressure comes from higher investments and increased fuel prices. A sharp drop in the stock price may be repricing the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA increased from $162.4M (11.1% margin) in 2026-Q4 to $315.5M (15.7% margin) in 2027-Q2, reflecting strong operational leverage and segment growth. Management is delivering on EBITDA growth and margin expansion targets.
“Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA of $315.5 million, 15.7% of contract revenues.”
“Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA of $262.5 million, 13.4% of contract revenues.”
“Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA of $162.4 million, 11.1% of contract revenues.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $4.4 in Q3 2026
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $6.85 billion in fiscal 2027
Raise full year fiscal 2027 contract revenue outlook driven by organic growth and acquisitions in Communications and Building Systems segments.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Fiscal 2027 contract revenue guidance increased from $6.85-$7.15B in 2026-Q4 to $7.48-$7.66B in 2027-Q2. Quarterly contract revenues grew 45.6% YoY to $2.006B in 2027-Q2. Management is delivering on revenue growth and consistently raising guidance.
“Raises full year fiscal 2027 outlook to $7.48 billion to $7.66 billion in contract revenues.”
“Raises full year fiscal 2027 outlook to $7.38 billion to $7.65 billion in contract revenues.”
“For fiscal 2027, expects contract revenues $6.85 billion to $7.15 billion.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, DY's performance will depend on management's execution and broader sector trends. Not investment advice.