Dycom Industries (DY)

NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$224.56-0.27%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Dycom Industries’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Contract revenue	$1.9B–$1.98B	—
Revenue	—	1.95B
EPS	$4.33–$4.79non-GAAP	4.59
EBITDA	$281M–$302Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Contract revenue	$7.48B–$7.66B	—
Revenue	—	7.59B
EPS	—	17.061
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	8.55B
EPS	—	20.402

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Longer-term ambitions · FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	About $150M	—

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $284 million in Q2 2026	Profit targets also rose to $284 million EBITDA.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $202 million in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA increased from $162.4M (11.1% margin) in 2026-Q4 to $315.5M (15.7% margin) in 2027-Q2, reflecting strong operational leverage and segment growth. Management is delivering on EBITDA growth and margin expansion targets. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS at least $4.61 in Q3 2026	A supporting condition in Dycom Industries's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.61.	Intact	EPS falls below $4.4 in Q3 2026	Diluted EPS: $3.81 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.61. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 20263.81 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c55f03c6-85dd-4810-b52e-046562d106e0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $7.38 billion in fiscal 2027	A primary condition in Dycom Industries's published investment case. The stated target is >= $7.38 billion.	Broken	Revenue falls below $6.85 billion in fiscal 2027	Revenue: $2.006B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.38 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 20262,005,907,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c55f03c6-85dd-4810-b52e-046562d106e0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Fiscal 2027 contract revenue guidance increased from $6.85-$7.15B in 2026-Q4 to $7.48-$7.66B in 2027-Q2. Quarterly contract revenues grew 45.6% YoY to $2.006B in 2027-Q2. Management is delivering on revenue growth and consistently raising guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPSUnavailable

$19.98 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$8.55B

$8.48B → $8.55B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$19.98	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$19.98	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-07-30	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-07-31	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-08-01	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$19.95	$8,466,574,290	9 / 9
2026-08-07	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-08-09	$19.95	$8,466,574,290	9 / 9
2026-08-10	$19.95	$8,466,574,290	9 / 9
2026-08-11	$19.95	$8,466,574,290	9 / 9
2026-08-12	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-08-13	$19.95	$8,466,574,290	9 / 9
2026-08-14	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-08-16	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-08-19	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-08-20	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-08-21	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-08-22	$19.97	$8,483,760,780	7 / 7
2026-08-23	$19.96	$8,482,097,143	7 / 7
2026-08-24	$19.96	$8,482,097,143	7 / 7
2026-08-25	$19.96	$8,482,097,143	7 / 7
2026-08-26	$19.96	$8,482,097,143	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$19.96	$8,482,097,143	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$19.96	$8,482,097,143	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$20.38	$8,568,912,990	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$20.38	$8,568,912,990	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$20.38	$8,568,912,990	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$20.38	$8,568,912,990	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$20.38	$8,568,912,990	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$20.38	$8,568,912,990	7 / 7
2026-09-04	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	7 / 7
2026-09-05	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	7 / 7
2026-09-06	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	7 / 7
2026-09-07	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	7 / 7
2026-09-08	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	7 / 7
2026-09-09	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$20.35	$8,537,049,354	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$20.36	$8,559,236,819	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$20.36	$8,559,236,819	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$20.41	$8,556,600,455	5 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$8,556,600,455	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$8,553,568,637	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$8,553,568,637	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$8,553,568,637	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	0	0
2026-06-01	11	0	0
2026-07-01	11	0	0
2026-08-01	11	0	0
2026-09-01	11	0	0
2026-10-01	11	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $284 million in Q2 2026Published status: Broken
EPS at least $4.61 in Q3 2026Diluted EPS: $3.81 per share
Revenue grows to at least $7.38 billion in fiscal 2027Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 18, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-58.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Dycom Industries outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented industrial services business with acquisition-driven expansion, rather than a settled, low-risk compounder. The thesis is on watch: management is meeting its stated growth and margin priorities, while recent momentum has weakened and performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Dycom Industries

DY is described as cheap versus peers, while the pricing assessment is tagged as justified and fragility is low. The negative expectations gap suggests expectations are cautious, but the evidence does not show that valuation alone resolves the business risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show strong contract-revenue growth, higher fiscal 2027 guidance, and expanding adjusted EBITDA margins, with acquisitions adding revenue and EBITDA. The next call remains important: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and the recent history of a deep miss plus industry peers missing adds risk despite a low estimated near-term miss probability.

What Dycom Industries hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining revenue growth, integrating acquisitions, and continuing margin expansion. Sector signals matter too: continued strength from PWR, FIX, and EME would support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.