Fluor (FLR)

NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$44.05+1.45%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Fluor’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.39 → 3.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	4.4B
EPS	—	0.86
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	16.57B
EPS	—	2.705
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	18.28B
EPS	—	3.369

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating cash flow improves to positive territory	Fluor is improving cash flow and profitability with operating cash rising from -$286M to $110M.	Intact	operating cash flow falls below $0 in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Cash from operations: $-317M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $110M operating cash flow. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 2026-317,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS meets or exceeds raised guidance	The company has raised its EPS guidance for 2025 to $2.15 per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.1 per share in 2025-FY	Diluted EPS: $0.81 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.15 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.81 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8426373b-3d44-49f8-9bca-c90955fe61e6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income improves to positive levels	Net income turned positive at $160M in Q1 2026.	Intact	net income falls below $0 in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Net income: $114M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $160M net income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026114,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8426373b-3d44-49f8-9bca-c90955fe61e6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near consensus	A primary condition in Fluor's published investment case. The stated target is >= 8% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	revenue growth falls below 0% YoY in FY26	Revenue growth: 8.82% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 8% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20268.823529 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8426373b-3d44-49f8-9bca-c90955fe61e6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.37

$3.27 → $3.37 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$18.28B

$17.05B → $18.28B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.27	$17,050,445,820	7 / 6
2026-07-25	$3.27	$17,050,445,820	7 / 6
2026-07-26	$3.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-27	$3.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	$3.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-29	$3.27	$17,050,445,820	7 / 6
2026-07-30	$3.27	$17,050,445,820	7 / 6
2026-07-31	$3.27	$17,050,445,820	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$3.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	$3.27	$17,050,445,820	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$3.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-04	$3.27	$17,050,445,820	7 / 6
2026-08-05	$3.27	$17,050,445,820	7 / 6
2026-08-06	$3.27	$17,050,445,820	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$3.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$3.27	$17,050,445,820	7 / 6
2026-08-09	$3.27	$17,050,445,820	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$3.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-11	$3.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-12	$3.37	$18,297,067,760	8 / 7
2026-08-13	$3.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-14	$3.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$3.25	$17,270,915,656	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$3.25	$17,270,915,656	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$3.25	$17,270,915,656	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$3.25	$17,270,915,656	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$3.25	$17,270,915,656	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$3.39	$18,394,780,550	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$3.35	$18,223,180,757	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$3.36	$18,253,518,472	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$3.36	$18,253,518,472	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$3.36	$18,253,518,472	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$3.36	$18,253,518,472	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$3.36	$18,253,518,472	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$3.36	$18,253,518,472	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$3.37	$18,276,032,757	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$3.37	$18,276,032,757	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$3.37	$18,276,032,757	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$3.37	$18,276,032,757	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$3.37	$18,276,032,757	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$3.37	$18,276,032,757	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$3.37	$18,276,032,757	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$3.37	$18,276,032,757	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$3.37	$18,276,032,757	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	5	0
2026-06-01	4	5	1
2026-07-01	4	5	1
2026-08-01	4	5	0
2026-09-01	4	5	0
2026-10-01	4	5	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating cash flow improves to positive territoryCash from operations: $-317M
EPS meets or exceeds raised guidanceDiluted EPS: $0.81 per share
Net income improves to positive levelsNet income: $114M
Sustain revenue growth near consensusPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-24.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Fluor outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an execution-sensitive industrial contractor, not a steady compounder today. The long-term thesis is supported by rising revenue and backlog, while the current state remains watch because recent performance has lagged its industry cohort and earnings quality is loss-making.

What's priced into Fluor

FLR is described as cheap versus peers, though the valuation model has medium confidence. The negative expectations gap suggests the market’s assumptions are below the model’s, while the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low; this does not remove the risk that results remain weak.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue rose from $3.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026 to $4.3 billion in the second, and awards increased from $2.7 billion to $6.1 billion. Backlog also grew to $26.9 billion, with 85% reimbursable, while share repurchases are progressing unevenly against the stated 2026 target. The outlook is tempered by lowered guidance as of August 7, recent earnings misses, and elevated risk, despite an earnings beat noted on that date.

What Fluor hinges on

A key favorable signal would be guidance reversing upward next quarter after the recent reduction. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on FLR converting its growing, more reimbursable backlog into stronger financial results. Results and guidance from sector peers PWR, FIX, and EME could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.