MasTec (MTZ)

NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$171.05-0.29%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MasTec’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.60 → 12.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	5.04B
EPS	—	2.691
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	18.19B
EPS	$6.2	9.269
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	21.52B
EPS	—	12.348

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful integration of Superior Group acquisition	A supporting condition in MasTec's published investment case. The stated target is Acquisition contributes positively to revenue and margins in FY26.	Improving	Acquisition fails to add revenue or causes margin pressure in FY26	Qualitative: Superior adds growth engine; FY26 rev $18.2B, EPS $9.30 Superior Group acquisition described as adding growth engine. Q2 results show earnings acceleration. FY26 guidance set at $18.2B revenue and $9.30 EPS. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain demand from AI-capable data center investments	The company benefits from AI data center investments supporting demand.	Intact	AI-related demand declines significantly in FY26	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase EPS guidance to $6.77 for 2026	EPS guidance was raised to $6.77 for 2026, showing profit growth.	Broken	EPS guidance falls below $6.0 for FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.65 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $6.77. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261.65 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 530b192a-54f8-489f-9ccc-0691c14e4628. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 22% revenue growth in 2026	A primary condition in MasTec's published investment case. The stated target is >=22% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below ~19% in FY26	Revenue growth: 23.38% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=22% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202623.382736 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 530b192a-54f8-489f-9ccc-0691c14e4628. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.5B in 2025-Q2 to $4.4B in 2026-Q2, a 23% year-over-year increase. Full year 2026 revenue guidance was raised from $17.0B to $18.2B, a 22% increase over 2025. The trajectory is delivering strong growth consistent with management's stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$12.35

$13.65 → $12.35 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$21.52B

$22.29B → $21.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.65	$22,285,660,210	9 / 10
2026-07-25	$13.58	$22,220,737,140	10 / 11
2026-07-26	$13.58	$22,220,737,140	10 / 11
2026-07-27	$13.58	$22,220,737,140	10 / 11
2026-07-28	$13.58	$22,220,737,140	10 / 11
2026-07-29	$12.38	$22,436,037,721	7 / 8
2026-07-30	$13.81	$22,460,154,730	9 / 10
2026-07-31	$13.75	$22,348,441,920	8 / 9
2026-08-01	$12.38	$22,436,037,721	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$13.16	$22,000,701,950	10 / 11
2026-08-03	$12.38	$22,098,030,097	7 / 8
2026-08-04	$13.16	$22,000,701,950	10 / 11
2026-08-05	$12.78	$21,878,495,200	14 / 15
2026-08-06	$12.38	$22,098,030,097	7 / 8
2026-08-07	$12.38	$22,098,030,097	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$12.62	$21,762,282,820	17 / 17
2026-08-09	$12.62	$21,762,282,820	17 / 17
2026-08-10	$12.38	$22,098,030,097	7 / 8
2026-08-12	$12.62	$21,762,300,470	17 / 17
2026-08-13	$12.38	$22,098,030,097	7 / 8
2026-08-14	$12.38	$22,098,030,097	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$12.38	$22,098,030,097	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$12.38	$22,098,030,097	9 / 10
2026-08-17	$12.38	$22,098,030,097	9 / 10
2026-08-18	$12.38	$22,098,030,097	10 / 10
2026-08-19	$12.38	$22,098,030,097	10 / 10
2026-08-20	$12.55	$21,665,704,578	11 / 13
2026-08-21	$12.55	$21,665,704,578	13 / 14
2026-08-22	$12.55	$21,665,704,578	13 / 14
2026-08-23	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 14
2026-08-24	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 14
2026-08-25	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 14
2026-08-26	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 14
2026-08-27	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 14
2026-08-28	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 14
2026-08-29	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 14
2026-08-30	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 14
2026-08-31	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 15
2026-09-01	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 15
2026-09-02	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 15
2026-09-03	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 15
2026-09-04	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 15
2026-09-05	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 15
2026-09-06	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 15
2026-09-07	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 15
2026-09-08	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	13 / 15
2026-09-09	$12.55	$21,662,689,578	14 / 15
2026-09-10	$12.60	$21,661,751,979	14 / 15
2026-09-11	$12.60	$21,661,751,979	14 / 15
2026-09-12	$12.60	$21,661,751,979	14 / 15
2026-09-13	$12.60	$21,661,751,979	14 / 15
2026-09-14	$12.60	$21,661,751,979	14 / 15
2026-09-15	$12.60	$21,661,751,979	14 / 15
2026-09-16	$12.60	$21,661,751,979	14 / 15
2026-09-17	$12.60	$21,661,751,979	14 / 15
2026-09-18	$12.60	$21,661,751,979	14 / 15
2026-09-19	$12.60	$21,661,751,979	14 / 15
2026-09-20	$12.60	$21,661,942,455	14 / 15
2026-09-21	$12.60	$21,661,942,455	14 / 16
2026-09-22	$12.60	$21,661,942,455	14 / 16
2026-09-23	$12.60	$21,662,243,767	14 / 16
2026-09-24	$12.60	$21,662,243,767	14 / 16
2026-09-25	$12.60	$21,662,243,767	14 / 16
2026-09-26	$12.60	$21,662,243,767	14 / 16
2026-09-27	$12.60	$21,662,243,767	14 / 16
2026-09-28	$12.60	$21,662,243,767	14 / 16
2026-09-29	$12.53	$21,647,100,910	14 / 16
2026-09-30	$12.53	$21,647,100,910	14 / 16
2026-10-01	$12.51	$21,632,686,625	14 / 16
2026-10-02	$12.51	$21,632,686,625	14 / 16
2026-10-03	$12.51	$21,632,686,625	14 / 16
2026-10-04	$12.51	$21,632,686,625	14 / 16
2026-10-05	$12.51	$21,632,686,625	14 / 16
2026-10-06	$12.45	$21,581,924,720	14 / 16
2026-10-07	$12.39	$21,544,400,910	14 / 16
2026-10-08	$12.37	$21,523,660,358	14 / 16
2026-10-09	$12.37	$21,531,981,548	14 / 16
2026-10-10	$12.37	$21,531,981,548	14 / 16
2026-10-11	$12.37	$21,531,981,548	14 / 16
2026-10-12	$12.37	$21,531,981,548	14 / 16
2026-10-13	$12.37	$21,531,981,548	14 / 16
2026-10-14	$12.37	$21,531,981,548	13 / 16
2026-10-15	$12.37	$21,531,981,548	13 / 16
2026-10-16	$12.37	$21,527,214,882	13 / 16
2026-10-17	$12.37	$21,527,214,882	13 / 16
2026-10-18	$12.37	$21,527,214,882	14 / 16
2026-10-19	$12.37	$21,527,214,882	14 / 16
2026-10-20	$12.37	$21,527,230,650	14 / 16
2026-10-21	$12.37	$21,527,230,650	14 / 16
2026-10-22	$12.37	$21,527,232,983	14 / 16
2026-10-23	$12.37	$21,529,748,888	14 / 16
2026-10-24	$12.35	$21,519,534,282	14 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	1	2
2026-06-01	19	0	1
2026-07-01	19	1	1
2026-08-01	19	1	0
2026-09-01	20	1	0
2026-10-01	21	1	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 22 · prior Aug 12

$409.00 → $274.00-33.0%

BarclaysOct 19

$320.00New observation · no comparable prior

KeyBancOct 15 · prior Aug 3

$371.00 → $320.00-13.7%

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 12

$348.00New observation · no comparable prior

Stifel NicolausOct 8 · prior May 4

$455.00 → $305.00-33.0%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 7 · prior Jul 8

$502.00 → $352.00-29.9%

Piper SandlerSep 28 · prior Sep 8

$321.00 → $313.00-2.5%

$0$276.10$552.20

0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Sustain demand from AI-capable data center investmentsQualitative condition
Increase EPS guidance to $6.77 for 2026Published status: Broken
Achieve 22% revenue growth in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-60.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MasTec outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MTZ is a growth-oriented infrastructure contractor, with recent results and backlog supporting a strong business trajectory. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What's priced into MasTec

The evidence labels MTZ cheap versus peers, while also showing a 56% peer premium and low confidence in the valuation model. Expectations appear justified overall, with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market may not be fully reflecting the current business outlook.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term fundamentals have strong support: second-quarter revenue rose 23% year over year, backlog grew 30%, and management raised full-year 2026 revenue and diluted earnings guidance. Execution is on track across growth, profitability, and backlog, but a recent quarterly miss and elevated risk leave room for setbacks.

What MasTec hinges on

Over the next year, the key test is whether MTZ sustains its raised guidance; a reversal and guidance cut would also damage management credibility. Sector signals matter too: continued strong results from PWR, FIX, and EME could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.