Reading MRP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MRP free→Reading MRP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MRP free→NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared to sector peers that are above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact, priced roughly in line with peers, with steady recent financials and earnings quality. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 MRP trades at 10× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $36 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 19% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 8.11x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.79 → $0.76 (-3.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$104.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$269.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,941.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting this goal shows the company is growing and working well.
Confirms:Q2 AFFO per share run rate reported between $0.78 and $0.80.
Disproves:Q2 AFFO per share run rate reported below $0.78.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MRP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Millrose Properties, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed 'filed' for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchan…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MRP Millrose Properties, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | fair | moderate |
WPC W. P. Carey | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | full | low |
LAMR Lamar Advertising Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
OHI Omega Healthcare Investors | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company plans to deploy $1 billion of additional invested capital by mid-2026 using existing debt capacity.
The company aims for approximately 10% year-over-year AFFO per share growth for the full year 2026.
The company aims to enhance operating income as a key financial priority.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Focus on increasing net income through revenue growth and cost management.
Why it matters: More sales to Lennar show strong demand and steady cash flow.
Confirms:Homesite sales to Lennar exceed $626 million in Q2.
Disproves:Homesite sales to Lennar fall below $500 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in inflation can affect real estate values. They also influence how investors feel.
Confirms one read:CPI and PPI reports show that inflation rates are going down a lot.
Confirms the other:CPI and PPI reports show inflation rates rising or remaining high.
Why it matters: A net income above $130M would indicate strong performance in both revenue and cost management. This is key for investor sentiment.
Confirms:Net income exceeds $130M in Q2.
Disproves:Net income is below $110M in Q2.
Why it matters: This investment is key for growth and expanding the portfolio.
Confirms:Total new capital used is $2 billion by the end of 2026.
Disproves:Total new capital used is less than $1 billion by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows that the company is managing costs well. This helps meet efficiency goals.
Confirms:Operating income exceeds $180M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $150M in Q2.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows good market conditions. It also means the company is doing well.
Confirms one read:Q2 revenue growth reported above 7% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 revenue growth reported below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Deploying this capital is key for Millrose's growth and stability in the market.
Confirms:$1 billion of extra capital will be used by mid-2026.
Disproves:Less than $500 million of new capital is deployed by mid-2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 25, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Millrose Properties, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), entered into that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with the lenders party thereto, the issuing banks party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent for the lenders, which amended and restated the Company’s prior credit agreement. The Credit Agreement provides for (i) a four-year revo…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Other Events. On March 23, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.76 per share on the Company’s Class A common stock and Class B common stock, payable on April 15, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on April 3, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Millrose Properties, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed 'filed' for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as am…