Reading MHK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MHK free→Reading MHK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MHK free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash backs up reported profits, while risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact MHK's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $111.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $112 MHK trades at 12× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $152 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $109–$156. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 26% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.81x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.58 → $2.58 (+0.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 15 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 31% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 3.5% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$149.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$343.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,250.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well Mohawk is handling costs during inflation and market pressures. It shows how effective their restructuring efforts are.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS lands within the guided range of $2.50 to $2.60.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS is below $2.50. This means performance is worse than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MHK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 11, 2026, Mohawk Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) approved the appointment of Paul F. De Cock as Chief Executive Officer of the Company and as a Director on the Company’s Board, effective September 30, 2026 (the “CEO Transition Date”). Mr. De Cock will succeed Jeffrey S. Lor…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$109.00 – $156.00 (median $135.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Home Furnishings.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MHK Mohawk Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SGI Somnigroup International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ALH Alliance Laundry Holdings, Inc. | — | expensive | moderate |
LZB La-Z-Boy, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LEG Leggett & Platt | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Enhance results through productivity actions and previously announced restructuring projects.
Continue to launch new product collections with industry-leading designs and features to enhance sales and margins.
Focus on strategic capital allocation to strengthen the company's financial position.
Continue efforts to manage costs and improve operational efficiency.
Why it matters: Price increases are a direct response to rising costs. They can improve margins if accepted by consumers.
Confirms:The company is raising prices in many product types.
Disproves:The company says price increases are turned down or do not affect sales much.
Why it matters: Price increases are a response to rising costs. Their success will show how well Mohawk can maintain margins in a competitive market.
Confirms:Successful price increases lead to better gross margins in Q3 2026.
Disproves:Price increases fail to offset rising costs, leading to declining margins.
Why it matters: Innovation helps revenue grow. Updates can show future sales performance.
Confirms:New product launches or updates are announced that help revenue growth.
Disproves:No new product announcements or updates that impact revenue growth.
Why it matters: Cost management is a top priority. Progress here can improve profit margins.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by more than 10% from Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating income decreases or grows less than 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As described below in
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 12, 2026, Mohawk Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a New Credit Agreement (as defined hereafter), and, substantially contemporaneously therewith, the Company terminated all outstanding commitments and repaid all outstanding obligations under that certain Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of October 18, 2019 (as amended, restated, supplemented or otherwise modified prior to the date hereof), among the Company a…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information provided in
and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On April 30, 2026, Mohawk Industries, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release to report the Company’s earnings for the fiscal quarter ended April 4, 2026, which is attached to this report as Exhib…