Reading HBB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HBB free→Reading HBB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HBB free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, HBB is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is because it trades below peer multiples, but earnings quality is fragile. If HBB cuts guidance on the next call, that could be negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $20 HBB trades at 10× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $32 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$177.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$493.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,470.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue goes up, it may show a recovery in consumer spending.
Confirms:The earnings report on July 29 shows revenue growth above 0%.
Disproves:The earnings report shows revenue growth below 0%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HBB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, the following Exhibit is furnished as part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. (d) Exhibits 99 Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company first quarter ended March 3 1 , 202 6 earnings release, dated May 6 , 202 6 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly autho…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Home Furnishings.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HBB Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
SGI Somnigroup International | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MHK Mohawk Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ALH Alliance Laundry Holdings, Inc. | — | expensive | moderate |
LZB La-Z-Boy, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims for revenue growth to approach the mid-single digit range in 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $121.963M in 2026-Q1, down from $212.931M in 2025-Q4, indicating a decline. Despite the stated growth target, the trajectory shows limited progress towards achieving mid-single digit growth.
“The Company expects revenue growth to approach mid-single digit range in 2026.”
“The Company expects revenue growth to approach mid-single digit range in 2026.”
“Annual revenue: $600-$650 million.”
The company expects operating profit to decline in the low teens on a percentage basis in 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was $4.968M in 2026-Q1, down from $25.444M in 2025-Q4, reflecting a significant decline. The trajectory aligns with the expectation of a decline in operating profit.
“Operating profit to decline low teens on a percentage basis.”
“Operating profit on a reported basis is expected to decline low teens on a percentage basis.”
The company expects cash flow from operating activities less cash used for investing activities to be $35M-$45M in 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $3.304M in 2026-Q1. The current cash flow is significantly below the annual target range of $35M-$45M, indicating limited progress towards the goal.
“Cash flow from operating activities less cash used for investing activities for 2026 is expected to be in the range of $35 million to $45 million.”
Why it matters: Higher retail sales mean stronger consumer demand. This would help Hamilton Beach.
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0%.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates. They also affect how much people spend.
Confirms one read:The FOMC raises interest rates. This causes consumer confidence to drop.
Confirms the other:When the FOMC keeps interest rates the same or lowers them, consumer confidence goes up.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, the following Exhibit is furnished as part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. (d) Exhibits 99 Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 202 5 earnings release, dated February 2 5 , 202 6 . 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, the following Exhibit is furnished as part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. (d) Exhibits 99 Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company’s Investor Presentation dated January 12, 2026 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL) Forward-Looking Statements The statements contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K that are not historical facts are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, the following Exhibit is furnished as part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. (d) Exhibits 99 Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company third quarter ended September 30, 2025 earnings release, dated Novemb er 5 , 2025 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, the following Exhibit is furnished as part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. (d) Exhibits 99 Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company second quarter ended June 3 0 , 2025 earnings release, dated July 30, 2025 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly author…
“Cash flow from operating activities less cash used for investing activities for 2026 is expected to be in the range of $35 million to $45 million.”