Reading VIRC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VIRC free→Reading VIRC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VIRC free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.30 VIRC trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $7.16 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -9.40x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.07. 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 1.9% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$115.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$384.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,762.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company cares about its shareholders. It shows financial health if paid regularly.
Confirms:The dividend is paid on July 10, 2026, as planned.
Disproves:The company stops or lowers the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VIRC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 3, 2026, Virco Mfg. Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Home Furnishings.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VIRC Virco Mfg. Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | fair | elevated |
SGI Somnigroup International | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MHK Mohawk Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ALH Alliance Laundry Holdings, Inc. | — | expensive | moderate |
LZB La-Z-Boy, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue paying a quarterly dividend of $0.025 per share, subject to board approval.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Drive revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth means the company is doing well in a tough market. This helps its growth plan.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue growth reported as positive compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue growth reported as negative compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is controlling costs well. This is important for long-term profits.
Confirms:Operating income is better than the Q1 2026 results.
Disproves:Operating income is worse than the Q1 2026 results.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 2, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a cash dividend for the Company’s second fiscal quarter of $0.025 on each outstanding share of common stock. The dividend is payable on July 10, 2026 to stockholders of record of the common stock as of the close of business on June 19, 2026. While the Company currently intends to pay future dividends on a quarterly basis, following review and approval by the Board of Directors, the declaration and payment of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 8, 2026, Virco Mfg. Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this
Regulation FD Disclosure. On March 5, 2026, the Board of Directors of Virco Mfg. Corporation (the "Company") declared a cash dividend for the Company's first fiscal quarter of $0.025 on each outstanding share of common stock. The dividend is payable on April 10, 2026 to stockholders of record of the common stock as of the close of business on March 20, 2026. While the Company currently intends to pay future dividends on a quarterly basis, following review and approval by the Board of Director…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 8, 2025, Virco Mfg. Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended October 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this