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Alliance Laundry Holdings, Inc. (ALH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-07-06
Intact
$26.02+0.62%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
The thesis is that effective management of transitions supports leadership and growth. Revenue performance has been strong, with a recent beat of 19% on earnings. ALH trades at 24× P/E versus a peer median of 17×. This suggests the price reflects less growth than expected. If ALH cuts guidance after raising it, that could hurt credibility. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
- Market cap
- $5.14B
- Employees
- 3,923
- IPO date
- 2025-09-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-11
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $26.02. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$23.28
Range $9.67 – $25.84
vs price: +12% above
Method agreement : high · 10 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$34.13consensus
Range $23.59 – $38.42
vs price: -24% below
Method agreement : medium · 4 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$45.14consensus
Range $30.50 – $50.81
vs price: -42% below
Method agreement : medium · 4 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $26 the market pays 24× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 24× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $23 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
23.7x
peer 16.7x · own history 24.0x
Premium
1.4x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
11%
our forecast 31%
Our fair value
$23.42
range $16.42 – $26.13
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price sits about 11% above a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 31% growth — below our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
23.9xP/E · peer median
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=2438).
58th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish8 analysts, 88% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
. 0 raised, 5 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$146.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$338.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,922.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · valuation_scoresmall change
Valuation fell by 10.2 points (from 52.6 to 42.4).
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mixed'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company effectively managed executive transitions, which supports leadership. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 17d
Watch for revenue growth guidance raised to 6%-7%
Why it matters: A raise in revenue guidance shows confidence in future sales. It can boost investor trust.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management confirms revenue growth guidance at 6%-7% during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management expects revenue growth to stay below 6%.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-021mo agoInvesting.com
Advances: Manage executive transitions effectively
Effective management of transitions supports leadership objective.
ReinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for retail sales data on July 16
- Watch for unemployment claims data on July 9 and July 16
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SN, SGI, and MHK keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting ALH and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ALH beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +19% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If ALH reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-12), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like SN, SGI, and MHK start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping ALH and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits ALH and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-298d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 29, 2026, Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing that Moody's Ratings has upgraded the Company's corporate family rating to B1 from B2 and concurrently upgraded the Company's senior secured first lien revolving credit facility and senior secured first lien term loan to B1 from B2. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The infor…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.