Multi-year structural phase read for the Consumer Discretionary sector. Distinct from regime (60–90d momentum) and AI cycle quadrant (shorter horizon).
Where the sector stands today (current structural phase). The epoch timeline below is a different lens — the historical growth arc — so its most recent stage can read differently.
A few signals are mixed, so this read is moderately confident. Consumer Discretionary has been in a declining phase for under a year. Revenue is shrinking and the sector is contracting. Recent data hints the phase may be changing. A key driver is 3-year revenue growth, near 2 percent. Watch for one change: revenue growth turns positive again.
v1 classifier · Matches hand-labeled sector history within one phase ~94% of the time (phases sit on a continuum, so an exact-label match is a stricter test). Phase is a multi-year structural read, distinct from sector regime (medium-term momentum) and AI cycle quadrant (shorter horizon). These can disagree, and that's normal.
Data-drawn growth epochs since 2015, sized by duration and colored by growth-based stage. The most recent epoch is ongoing. This is the historical growth arc — a different lens from the current structural phase above, so the latest epoch's stage can differ from the lifecycle read.
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales growth is a key indicator for consumer spending. It affects the whole sector.
Confirms:June retail sales show growth above 0% year over year.
Disproves:June retail sales decline or show no growth year over year.
