Reading COOK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COOK free→Reading COOK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COOK free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 35% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $69.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $69, COOK's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 54× p/e (3.5× the 15× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~-32% near-term growth vs our ~-13% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $102 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $38–$45. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 32% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.53x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.17 → $-1.57 (-33.9% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 14% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$421.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$960.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,594.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects consumer spending. Strong growth could boost Traeger's sales.
Confirms one read:GDP growth exceeds 2% in the third estimate.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is below 1% in the third estimate.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for COOK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, Traeger, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$38.00 – $45.00 (median $40.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Home Furnishings.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
COOK Traeger, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
SGI Somnigroup International | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MHK Mohawk Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ALH Alliance Laundry Holdings, Inc. | — | expensive | moderate |
LZB La-Z-Boy, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by strategy shifts. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve total revenue between $465 million and $485 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $94.1M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the annual target of $465M to $485M. The trajectory shows limited progress as Q1 revenue is below the quarterly average needed to meet the annual target.
“Total revenue is expected to be between $465 million and $485 million.”
“Total revenue is expected to be between $465 million and $485 million.”
Management aims to improve gross margin to between 39.5% and 40.5% for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit was $43.0M in 2026-Q1, but the gross margin percentage is not explicitly provided. The trajectory towards the 39.5%-40.5% target remains unclear without specific margin data.
“Gross margin is expected to be between 39.5% and 40.5%.”
Management aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA between $57 million and $67 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The financials do not provide specific adjusted EBITDA figures for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress towards the $57M-$67M target. The trajectory remains uncertain without explicit EBITDA data.
“Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $57 million and $67 million.”
Why it matters: Traeger is in a declining sector. Changes in sector performance can affect its outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive for the first time in three years.
Disproves:Sector revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: This report shows consumer spending trends. It can impact Traeger's sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase month over month by more than 0.5%.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline month over month by more than -0.5%.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 26, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Traeger, Inc. (the “Company”) reviewed the results of its 2025 annual cash incentive program and determined that the applicable performance goals were not achieved, which resulted in no payments under the program to the Company’s named executive officers. However, the Board decided to award…
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On March 5, 2026 , Traeger, Inc. (the “Company”) received written notice (the “Notice”) from the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) that it is not in compliance with the continued listing standard set forth in Section 802.01C of the NYSE’s Listed Company Manual (“Section 802.01C”) because the average closing price of the Company’s common stock was less than $1.00 per share over a consecutive…
this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. As previously disclosed in a Current Report on Form 8-K filed on May 15, 2025 (the “May 8-K”) and an amended Current Report on Form 8-K filed on August 6, 2025 (the “August 8-K”), November 5, 2025 (the “November 8-K”) and December 4, 2025 (the “December 8-K”), the Board of Directors of Traeger approved a comprehensive enterprise initiative designed to streamline the Company’s organizational structure and rebalance its cost base to improve pro…
“Gross margin is expected to be between 38.0% and 39.0%.”
“Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $50 million and $60 million.”