Traeger, Inc. (COOK)

Q: What's priced into Traeger, Inc. (COOK) stock?

Valuation is tagged as stretched, at a 3.55-point premium to peers, with low model confidence. The expectations gap is 0.16, and optionality is the main valuation driver, but the evidence does not specify exactly what assumptions the market has priced in.

Q: What does the Traeger, Inc. (COOK) outlook hinge on?

The multi-year thesis hinges on whether Project Gravity can keep improving the operating model and profitability while revenue stabilizes. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$46.84+3.45%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Traeger, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	152.94M
EPS	—	2.49
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$435M–$465M	446.43M
EPS	—	-0.046
EBITDA	$57M–$67Mnon-GAAP	—
Gross margin	40%–41%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	465.36M
EPS	—	1.651

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow at least $30M in 2026	Free cash flow is expected above $30M.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $30M in FY26	Free cash flow: $26.404M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $30M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202626,404,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin between 39.5% and 40.5% in 2026	Gross margin should improve to about 40%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 39.5% in FY26	Gross margin: 39.46% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 39.5% and <= 40.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202639.461398 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6ad83b37-aa75-4e40-863d-9b2076c854fd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross margin was 45.7% in 2026-Q1 (including tariff refund) and 39.5% in 2026-Q2. Management raised full-year gross margin guidance to 40.0%-41.0%, reflecting tariff benefits and cost actions, showing progress toward the target range. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue between $465M and $485M in 2026	A primary condition in Traeger, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $465M and <= $485M total revenue.	Broken	Revenue falls below $465M in FY26	Revenue: $120.163M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $465M and <= $485M total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026120,163,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6ad83b37-aa75-4e40-863d-9b2076c854fd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.66 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.47B

$0.49B → $0.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.66	$487,271,430	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$0.66	$487,271,430	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$0.66	$487,271,430	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$0.66	$487,271,430	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.66	$487,271,430	7 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$487,278,657	4 / 5
2026-07-30	$0.66	$487,271,430	7 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$487,278,657	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$487,278,657	4 / 5
2026-08-02	$0.66	$487,271,430	7 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$487,278,657	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$487,278,657	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$487,278,657	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$487,278,657	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$470,637,100	4 / 5
2026-08-08	$2.50	$471,485,710	5 / 7
2026-08-09	$1.00	$465,357,140	5 / 7
2026-08-10	$1.00	$465,357,140	5 / 7
2026-08-11	$1.00	$465,357,140	5 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.43	$465,357,140	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$0.43	$465,357,140	6 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$470,637,100	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$470,637,100	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$470,637,100	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$470,637,100	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$470,637,100	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$470,637,100	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$470,637,100	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	7
2026-06-01	1	6
2026-07-01	1	6
2026-08-01	1	6
2026-09-01	1	6
2026-10-01	1	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow at least $30M in 2026Free cash flow: $26.404M
Gross margin between 39.5% and 40.5% in 2026Gross margin: 39.46%
Revenue between $465M and $485M in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-57.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Traeger, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a small-cap turnaround with elevated risk, not a durable compounder today. The multi-year view is in a watch state because recent performance trails its industry cohort, while Project Gravity is showing some operating progress.

What's priced into Traeger, Inc.

Valuation is tagged as stretched, at a 3.55-point premium to peers, with low model confidence. The expectations gap is 0.16, and optionality is the main valuation driver, but the evidence does not specify exactly what assumptions the market has priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue remains weak: quarterly revenue was below prior-year levels, and management lowered its 2026 revenue guidance. Adjusted EBITDA stayed steady across the first two quarters, while operating cash flow rose and Project Gravity remains on track, but erratic earnings and volatile management add uncertainty.

What Traeger, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on whether Project Gravity can keep improving the operating model and profitability while revenue stabilizes. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.

Bottom line

COOK has early signs of cost and cash-generation progress, but weak revenue, a recent guidance reduction, and stretched valuation leave the long-term thesis dependent on consistent execution. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	152.94M
EPS	—	2.49
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$435M–$465M	446.43M
EPS	—	-0.046
EBITDA	$57M–$67Mnon-GAAP	—
Gross margin	40%–41%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	465.36M
EPS	—	1.651

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.66 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.47B

$0.49B → $0.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.66	$487,271,430	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$0.66	$487,271,430	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$0.66	$487,271,430	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$0.66	$487,271,430	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.66	$487,271,430	7 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$487,278,657	4 / 5
2026-07-30	$0.66	$487,271,430	7 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$487,278,657	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$487,278,657	4 / 5
2026-08-02	$0.66	$487,271,430	7 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$487,278,657	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$487,278,657	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$487,278,657	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$487,278,657	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$470,637,100	4 / 5
2026-08-08	$2.50	$471,485,710	5 / 7
2026-08-09	$1.00	$465,357,140	5 / 7
2026-08-10	$1.00	$465,357,140	5 / 7
2026-08-11	$1.00	$465,357,140	5 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.43	$465,357,140	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$0.43	$465,357,140	6 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$470,637,100	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$470,637,100	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$470,637,100	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$470,637,100	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$470,637,100	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$470,637,100	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$470,637,100	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$465,356,071	3 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings