Reading ETD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ETD free→Reading ETD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ETD free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence ETD's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.47. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 ETD trades at 13× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $26 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.05x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.47 → $0.34 (-28.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$76.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$298.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,664.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in written orders shows weak demand for home furnishings.
Confirms:Retail segment written orders decline year over year by more than 5%.
Disproves:Retail segment written orders remain flat or grow year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ETD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026, Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (“Ethan Allen” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal 2026 third quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02 (Results of Operations and Financial Condition), including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Home Furnishings.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ETD Ethan Allen Interiors, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SGI Somnigroup International | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MHK Mohawk Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ALH Alliance Laundry Holdings, Inc. | — | expensive | moderate |
LZB La-Z-Boy, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on maintaining profitability despite a decrease in revenue.
Improve operational efficiency to support profitability.
Prioritize cash flow management to ensure financial stability.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it could signal a change in the growth phase of the sector.
Confirms:Q3 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q3 revenue growth remains above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Lower cash flow may lead to money problems and hurt long-term growth.
Confirms:Operating cash flow falls below $15 million in Q4.
Disproves:Operating cash flow is still above $15 million.
Why it matters: A lower gross margin means costs are rising or prices are under pressure.
Confirms:Gross margin falls below 59% in Q4.
Disproves:Gross margin stays at or above 59%.
Why it matters: Opening new design centers can drive sales growth and improve market presence.
Confirms:Two or more new design centers are opening in North America.
Disproves:No new design centers announced for the next quarter.