Reading PRPL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PRPL free→Reading PRPL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PRPL free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 89% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples but has weak financials. If PRPL reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that could signal a positive shift. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.42. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.43 PRPL trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $4.00 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 89% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.12x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.06 → $-0.07 (-22.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$210.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$735.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,871.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can indicate consumer spending trends. This affects Purple's sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales data shows an increase from last month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales data shows a decrease from last month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PRPL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Operating Officer — Eric Haynor: The resignation of the Chief Operating Officer without a named successor is a significant loss for the company.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Home Furnishings.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PRPL Purple Innovation Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
SGI Somnigroup International | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MHK Mohawk Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ALH Alliance Laundry Holdings, Inc. | — | expensive | moderate |
LZB La-Z-Boy, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to maintain its adjusted EBITDA guidance within the range of $20 to $30 million for 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently maintained its adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of $20 to $30 million. However, the financials show a net income loss of $30.54 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards achieving positive EBITDA.
“The Company is maintaining its adjusted EBITDA in the range of $20 to $30 million.”
“and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $20 to $30 million.”
“and adjusted EBITDA of breakeven to $10 million”
The company has updated its 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $465 to $485 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company revised its 2026 revenue outlook to $465-$485 million. However, revenue decreased from $140.688 million in 2025-Q4 to $95.73 million in 2026-Q1, indicating a challenging trajectory towards the updated guidance.
The company is undergoing a transition with the resignation of its Chief Operating Officer, effective June 5, 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company announced the resignation of its COO, Eric Haynor, effective June 5, 2026. This transition may impact operational continuity, but no immediate financial impact is evident from the current data.
“Resignation of Chief Operating Officer Eric Haynor, effective June 5, 2026.”
Why it matters: An updated revenue outlook will show how management views future sales. This can impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Management issues a press release. It raises the 2026 revenue outlook.
Disproves:Management lowers the 2026 revenue outlook. They may also give no update.
Why it matters: The COO change may affect operations and strategy. This could change performance and investor views.
Confirms one read:The new COO announces plans that improve how the company operates.
Confirms the other:Problems arise or performance drops after the COO change.
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy Listing Rules On May 5, 2026, Purple Innovation, Inc. (the “Company”) received a letter from the Listing Qualifications Department of The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) indicating that, as notified by Nasdaq on November 5, 2025, the bid price of the Company’s Class A common stock had closed at less than $1.00 per share over the previous 30 consecutive business days, and, as a result, did not comply with Listing Rule 5450(a)(1) (the “Minimum Bid Pr…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Chief Financial Officer Todd Vogensen, who currently serves as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, provided notice to the Company of his resignation as Chief Financial Officer effective May 1, 2026. As the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Vogensen also served as the Company’s Principal Financial Officer. Mr. Vogensen did not…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 28, 2026, Purple Innovation, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, affirming adjusted EBITDA guidance and providing revised net revenue guidance for 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall no…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On March 31, 2026, Purple Innovation, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and calendar year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities E…
“The Company is updating its 2026 outlook for full year revenue to a range of $465 to $485 million.”
“For 2026, the Company currently expects full year revenue to be in the range of $500 to $520 million”
“The Company is maintaining its 2025 guidance, projecting full-year revenue of $465 to $485 million”