Mohawk Industries (MHK)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$124.72-3.09%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Mohawk Industries’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.02 → 9.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2027-01-04
Revenue	—	2.61B
EPS	—	1.656
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	11.15B
EPS	—	9.808
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	11.38B
EPS	—	9.963

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash and cash equivalents at or above $872M	A supporting condition in Mohawk Industries's published investment case. The stated target is >=872 million USD.	Intact	Cash falls below $856M next year	Cash and cash equivalents: $856.1M FY2025-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=872 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source date unavailable856,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2025-Q4 · Period ending Dec 31, 2025 Source: company_balance_sheet. Reference: 2025-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management repurchased approximately $60 million of shares in 2026-Q2 and $64 million in 2026-Q1, maintaining disciplined capital allocation. Net debt stood at $1.07 billion in 2026-Q2 with a new credit agreement executed in May 2026. The trajectory shows consistent execution of capital allocation and balance sheet management. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain strategic capital allocation to strengthen finances	A supporting condition in Mohawk Industries's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or improve capital allocation strategy.	Intact	Capital allocation deviates from strategic strengthening	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management repurchased approximately $60 million of shares in 2026-Q2 and $64 million in 2026-Q1, maintaining disciplined capital allocation. Net debt stood at $1.07 billion in 2026-Q2 with a new credit agreement executed in May 2026. The trajectory shows consistent execution of capital allocation and balance sheet management. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income at or above $111.8M	A primary condition in Mohawk Industries's published investment case. The stated target is >=111.8 million USD.	Intact	Operating income falls below $96M next year	Operating income: $253.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=111.8 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026253,700,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 53d6030a-c4be-464e-a383-086beb39169c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased from $111.8 million in 2026-Q1 to $253.7 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting productivity gains and restructuring benefits. Management reiterated cost reduction target of approximately $60 million by end of 2027. The trajectory is delivering with significant productivity improvements and ongoing restructuring. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth at or above 6% YoY	A primary condition in Mohawk Industries's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Revenue growth: 6.76% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20266.755648 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 53d6030a-c4be-464e-a383-086beb39169c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net sales grew from $2.7 billion in 2025-Q4 to $3.0 billion in 2026-Q2, with adjusted gross profit margin improving from 24.8% to 27.4%. Management consistently emphasized new product launches and innovation to enhance sales and mix. The trajectory shows progress in product innovation contributing to growth and margin expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.96

$9.82 → $9.96 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$11.38B

$11.26B → $11.38B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.82	$11,258,239,320	16 / 15
2026-07-25	$9.81	$11,258,207,214	10 / 11
2026-07-26	$9.78	$11,257,874,520	10 / 11
2026-07-27	$9.79	$11,257,905,990	16 / 15
2026-07-28	$9.78	$11,257,874,520	10 / 11
2026-07-29	$9.76	$11,247,885,990	16 / 15
2026-07-30	$9.76	$11,247,885,990	16 / 15
2026-07-31	$9.76	$11,247,885,990	16 / 15
2026-08-01	$9.76	$11,247,856,224	10 / 11
2026-08-02	$9.86	$11,325,793,426	10 / 11
2026-08-03	$9.93	$11,306,980,630	15 / 15
2026-08-04	$9.93	$11,306,980,630	15 / 15
2026-08-05	$9.90	$11,325,793,426	10 / 11
2026-08-06	$9.90	$11,325,793,426	10 / 11
2026-08-07	$9.90	$11,325,793,426	10 / 11
2026-08-08	$10.06	$11,419,074,110	15 / 15
2026-08-09	$9.90	$11,325,793,426	10 / 11
2026-08-10	$9.90	$11,325,793,426	10 / 11
2026-08-12	$9.90	$11,325,793,426	10 / 11
2026-08-13	$10.06	$11,419,074,110	15 / 15
2026-08-14	$9.90	$11,325,793,426	10 / 11
2026-08-15	$9.90	$11,325,793,426	10 / 11
2026-08-16	$9.90	$11,325,793,426	10 / 11
2026-08-17	$9.90	$11,325,793,426	10 / 11
2026-08-18	$9.90	$11,325,793,426	10 / 11
2026-08-19	$9.90	$11,325,793,426	10 / 11
2026-08-20	$10.01	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-08-21	$10.01	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-08-22	$10.01	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-08-23	$10.01	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-08-24	$10.01	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-08-25	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-08-26	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-08-27	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-08-28	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-08-29	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-08-30	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-08-31	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-09-01	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-09-02	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-09-11	$10.03	$11,419,102,936	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$10.03	$11,419,075,069	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$10.03	$11,419,075,069	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$10.03	$11,419,075,069	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$10.03	$11,419,076,468	10 / 11
2026-09-16	$10.03	$11,419,076,468	10 / 11
2026-09-17	$10.03	$11,419,076,468	10 / 11
2026-09-18	$10.03	$11,419,076,468	10 / 11
2026-09-19	$10.03	$11,419,076,468	10 / 11
2026-09-20	$10.03	$11,419,104,335	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$10.03	$11,419,104,335	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$10.03	$11,419,104,335	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$10.02	$11,419,104,335	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$10.02	$11,419,104,335	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$10.02	$11,419,104,335	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$10.01	$11,419,971,001	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$10.01	$11,419,971,001	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$10.01	$11,419,971,001	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$10.02	$11,415,656,133	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$10.02	$11,415,656,133	10 / 11
2026-10-01	$10.02	$11,415,656,133	10 / 11
2026-10-02	$10.02	$11,415,656,133	10 / 11
2026-10-03	$10.02	$11,415,656,133	10 / 11
2026-10-04	$10.02	$11,415,656,133	10 / 11
2026-10-05	$10.02	$11,415,656,133	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$10.02	$11,415,656,133	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$10.06	$11,413,202,625	10 / 11
2026-10-08	$10.01	$11,407,240,125	11 / 11
2026-10-09	$10.00	$11,391,846,375	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$10.00	$11,391,846,375	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$10.00	$11,391,846,375	11 / 11
2026-10-12	$10.00	$11,391,846,375	11 / 11
2026-10-13	$10.01	$11,389,858,250	11 / 11
2026-10-14	$10.01	$11,389,858,250	11 / 11
2026-10-15	$10.00	$11,386,810,999	11 / 11
2026-10-16	$9.95	$11,379,265,938	11 / 11
2026-10-17	$9.95	$11,379,265,938	11 / 11
2026-10-18	$9.96	$11,379,239,813	11 / 11
2026-10-19	$9.96	$11,379,239,813	11 / 11
2026-10-20	$9.96	$11,379,239,813	11 / 11
2026-10-21	$9.96	$11,379,239,561	11 / 11
2026-10-22	$9.96	$11,380,739,561	11 / 11
2026-10-23	$9.96	$11,380,739,561	11 / 11
2026-10-24	$9.96	$11,380,739,561	11 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	11	0
2026-06-01	5	11	0
2026-07-01	4	11	0
2026-08-01	4	11	0
2026-09-01	4	11	0
2026-10-01	5	11	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 7 · prior Aug 3

$130.00 → $112.00-13.8%

Melius ResearchOct 6

$188.00New observation · no comparable prior

Evercore ISISep 25 · prior May 4

$110.00 → $129.00+17.3%

$0$103.40$206.80

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash and cash equivalents at or above $872MCash and cash equivalents: $856.1M
Maintain strategic capital allocation to strengthen financesQualitative condition
Operating income at or above $111.8MOperating income: $253.7M
Revenue growth at or above 6% YoYRevenue growth: 6.76%

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Mohawk Industries outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MHK is a cyclical business with an execution and recovery element, rather than a steady compounder. Its multi-year view remains intact: recent financial performance is strong, while management’s productivity, innovation, and capital-allocation priorities are on track.

What's priced into Mohawk Industries

The valuation evidence describes MHK as cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear restrained. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, although valuation has fallen notably in the recent period.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: operating income rose from $111.8 million in 2026-Q1 to $253.7 million in 2026-Q2, while sales and adjusted gross margin also improved over the reported periods. Productivity actions, restructuring, and product innovation are progressing, but management’s CEO transition and a possible guidance cut remain risks; earnings surprises have been trending down despite a low near-term miss-risk assessment.

What Mohawk Industries hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on productivity gains and new products continuing to support earnings and margins, alongside progress toward management’s cost-reduction goal. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.